The most important vote today is Scotland's. Sleaze, Covid & even Brexit will soon be dwarfed by @BorisJohnson biggest problem - how to preserve the UK. Officialdom is very (very) worried. Is there a plan? Thread, based on how I see things 1/

It's almost certain a majority of Scottish MSPs in favour of independence will be elected today. Results are expected Sat. Whether @theSNP wins an outright majority (65/129) is basically 50/50. Polls are on a knife edge 2/

SNP strategists have therefore been discussing a plan B if they don't win a majority: forming a coalition with the pro-independence Greens. After the last Scottish elex in 2016, @theSNP opted for a minority Govt and relied upon the Greens in crucial votes 3/

The thinking now is that forming a coalition in which Green MSPs assume ministerial posts will heap pressure on @BorisJohnson to concede IndyRef2 - as he would now be faced with a pro-independence Govt as well as Parliament 4/

What will the PM do? His aides are rehearsing their lines. In first instance he'll play for time, arguing: “It would be reckless to have the distraction of IndyRef2 during Covid.“  @NicolaSturgeon agrees - she's also promised not to seek a Ref until covid crisis has passed 5/

The second line of defence: throw lots of £££bn at the “Scottish problem“ - as its known in Whitehall. Billions for road, rail & other infrastructure projects will bypass the DA's under central Govt powers in the Internal Market Act. The NHS will be instrumentalised 6/

The third line of defence: an early election. It will be easier for BJ to play for time & reject IndyRef2 until 2023 rather than 2024. The Tories could then hope @theSNP loses seats in a general election while the Tories win again on a manifesto pledging to retain the Union 7/

Basically, @BorisJohnson could claim that his mandate was now fresher than @NicolaSturgeon. Suspect HMG will include a Bill to repeal TFTPA, which would have fixed a 2024 election, in the Queen’s Speech next Tuesday 8/

Will this all be enough? Probably not. Ministers accept the above strategy is merely a holding position; repeatedly denying IndyRef2 cd simply play into Sturgeon’s hands - fuelling nationalism & her anti-Westminster narrative - building even more support for... independence 9/

So fourth line of defence: “devo max” or “home rule” - probably the route @Keir_Starmer would go down as well. But many suspect his best chance of becoming PM might lie in a post-election pact with @theSNP, in which he would drop his opposition to IndyRef2 10/

Yet even a Tory pledge to hand more powers to Holyrood may not be enough to halt the nationalists’ tide. Whatever @BorisJohnson offers, surely @NicolaSturgeon would simply ask for more? This is where Tory war-gaming IndyRef2 strategies come into play 11/

Eg: allowing IndyRef2 only after the SNP produces a detailed blueprint for an independent Scotland, so pro-Union campaign could spotlight risks to the economy, currency, borders & public services 12/

Another route would be two Refs - on the principle of breaking away, & then to approve the divorce settlement negotiated with London (not again!) say over 2yrs.
Some Tories think incl “devo max” on IndyRef2 ballot could split nationalist vote & save the Union that way 13/

Yet no matter how this plays out, as I've argued & others have - & as both sides privately acknowledge - the dispute over IndyRef2 will at some point probs end up in the Supreme Court 14/

If London keeps denying IndyRef2, Sturgeon will come under intense pressure from SNP activists & @AlexSalmond to start legislating for one in Holyrood. HMG would then challenge in the courts; after all, the constitution is a “reserved matter” under the control of Westminster 15/

UK ministers have received legal advice that the courts would rule in their favour. But would a victory in the courts resolve the problem? In these circumstances, @theSNP insiders say pressure will grow on @NicolaSturgeon to hold a “wildcat“ IndyRef2 16/

She probably won't, bc it would risk losing legitimacy in eyes of other countries & EU which SNP wants to rejoin. It would also not offer certainty since the @ScotTories would boycott it. An alternative option favoured by Sturgeon allies wd be an “advisory Ref” 17/

This cd put pressure on Westminster to allow an official IndyRef2. It wd be less confrontational, & portrayed as a way of testing Scottish opinion. HMG is v v nervous about this; a consultative vote would offer Scots a “free hit” without worrying about consequences at that stage

All this to play out over next 4 or so years. Brexit is “done“. Covid vaccinations are progressing at pace & lockdown is ending. But @BorisJohnson “Scottish problem” is literally just beginning.
Full piece here with more detail @POLITICOEurope

https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-scotland-headache-independence-referendum-elections/

ENDS