Why it has to be #BothVotesSNP - the true cost of an Alba list vote.

@PeteWishart @stacybradleySNP @Emma_Roddick @KeithBrownSNP @JohnSwinney @RozaSalih @CeeGraham1 @fatima_joji @DanishAshrafSNP @stefanhoggan @EmmaHarpersnp @CampbellSNP

The #AlbaEffect https://listvotesense.medium.com/the-alba-effect-491a58c091b4?source=friends_link&sk=447d52f31c833e11bba62a6f8e6e9bfc

I’d like to talk to you about the #AlbaEffect

Let’s have a look at the most recent polls to see exactly what an Alba vote might get you

Let’s see what the seat projections would be from these polls — and what they’d be if voters stayed with the SNP instead of gambling with Alba

Let’s start with the YouGov poll released this week. Imagine if there was no Alba, if all those votes went to the SNP instead.

This would be the seat projection:

Now let’s see the effect of the 3% Alba support found in the poll.

The SNP list seat in Highlands and Islands handed on a platter to the Tories.

Next up, Savanta ComRes: with no Alba siphoning off SNP votes, the SNP would take six list seats, including regions like Lothian, MSF and NE, where we’re told it ‘can’t win’:

But Savanta ComRes found 2.3% support for Alba in their poll.

Supermajority? Nope, just two SNP list seats handed to the Tories, and one to Labour. Zero seats for Alba.

Next up, it’s Ipsos MORI. With no Alba, one list seat for the SNP in Highlands and Islands:

And then there was none…thanks to 2.3% support for Alba.

No wonder the Tories want you to believe Alba is a ‘threat to the union’.

They are rubbing their hands with glee, and can’t belief you’re falling for the nonsense about the #Supermajority fantasy.

Panelbase: no Alba, two projected SNP seats.

But Panelbase found 4.35% support for Alba. Bang goes that SNP list seat in H&I again.

One last one: BMG. No Alba, no threat to the SNP Highlands and Islands list seat:

And again, 4.5% for Alba gets you one more Tory instead.

Jamie Halcro Johnston must be thanking his lucky stars for Alba, as Alba looks like his ticket back to Holyrood.

So there we have it folks, despite what the madcap indy bloggers would lead you to believe, a vote for Alba is only likely to ensure there are *more* Tories at Holyrood, not less.

For many, postal votes for Alba may have been cast, for the rest of you, there’s still time to realise the true consequences of voting for a party at the ‘danger level’ of 3-5% in the polls: too little to win any seats, but big enough to hand SNP seats to the Tories.

It’s time to bin the supermajority fantasy, to realise the only route to #indyref2 is through a strong SNP majority government. It’s time to realise that it’s only SNP votes that will make Johnson and the Tories listen. Don’t gamble and waste your vote. It has to be #BothVotesSNP

Because if you #VoteYes, you may as well cut out the middlemen and vote Tory, because it’s more Tories you’ll get if you listen to the list party punters who won’t tell you the truth.

When the counts are done and the votes are tallied, we’ll be able to see exactly the true cost of the #AlbaEffect

- no ‘supermajority’, but quite possibly no SNP majority.

- potential SNP list lists taken by the Tories instead.

Don’t risk it. #BothVotesSNP