572 cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, the lowest number since March 20, as B.C.'s curve continues to bend down at a VERY encouraging pace.

Hospitalizations down to 481, and zero new deaths.

Today's chart.
33,068 people given a vaccine shot in B.C. yesterday, 1,412 of which were a second dose — highest number since early March.

Stilllllll waiting for that ramp up in daily numbers which *should* happen very soon now.
Because of a data correction, the charts record negative three #COVID19 deaths in B.C. today.

(the province says there were zero)

As you can see, it doesn't change the rolling average all that substantially for the moment.
It was three weeks ago that we reached the two-week mark of new restrictions in British Columbia. Since that time:

- Rolling average of new cases down 36%
- People under active monitoring down 33%
- Active cases down 31%
B.C.'s "it's a race between the variants and vaccines!" metaphor wasn't wrong.

It's just that there was a month where the variants were clearly winning and B.C. wasn't responding quickly enough.

As a result, we had 4-6 really frustrating weeks. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1389617547935420423
Now that B.C. is closer to being back in the driver's seat, following things are important:

- Will future variants be less efficient against the vaccine?

- What is the efficiency of vaccines more than a month after one shot?

- Can people follow guidelines for 1-2 more months?
If we get positive answers to those questions, we don't need a lot of modelling — we can see the numbers in Israel and the United Kingdom on where things are headed.

But there's still work and uncertainty ahead.

Keep making smart decisions.
No, you're wrong.

(As are many who centre their analysis on testing, rather than rolling averages, hospitalizations, and deaths.)

There were five days total last month where we tested between 12-13K a day.

Been between 10-11K generally since. https://twitter.com/JeysonWolf/status/1390079052862529538
It's very reasonable to criticize B.C.'s reluctance to utilize rapid testing more, given other countries with non-COVID Zero frameworks that had lots of success with them.

But B.C.'s testing framework has been fairly consistent for months.

It doesn't tell you much day to day.
Bluntly, there are some people who trust very little information that comes from the province, except for the testing numbers, which indicates to them that all the other numbers are questionable.

Ultimately it's hard to have a debate if one side doesn't trust the data.
You can follow @j_mcelroy.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: