L̶a̶s̶t̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ Two years ago, my colleagues and I stood before
our peers, faculty, & investors, lecturing on dangers an expansionist CCP posed to the world.

These threats have exponentially increased since then, so I'm bringing this back to expand.

Full analysis in THREAD:

China’s state-owned and state-backed ventures, including State-Owned Enterprises (SOE), regional banks, and the People’s Bank of China ( #PBOC) have created an ecosystem of interdependence within the Chinese economy that has skyrocketed China’s GDP over the last several decades...

#China has been the fastest growing economy in the world, w/annual growth rate of ~10%.

However, >quarter of GDP is direct SOEs, & 2/3 is funded by State-Owned Banks (SOB), which are funded by the PBOC.
With avg debt-to-asset ratio in Q119 @ 65.7%, There is a #disaster brewing.

Enter #JointVentures (See CNOOC/ #ConocoPhillips):
- Foreign Partner: capital, technology, & material.
- Chinese Partner: in-kind land leases, resources, & labor.
JV must utilize PBOC, local materials, & rely on negotiated Terms… their tenure in the China is not guaranteed.
#CCP

Risks of investing in China:
- losing critical corporate data
- intellectual property theft to Chinese competitors
- fear of nationalization of assets

Main sectors: ag, industrial, science, tech, & defense - all benefit the CCP; many remain black-listed to outside investment.

Over levered and unfruitful domestic projects have left the #CCP hungry for more.

- #China Controls 76 ports in 35 countries
- BRI
- Escalating military posture in international waters
- Outward focus, with 2018 FDI of $373B into the Europe, Middle East, & African #EMEA markets

EX: #BeltAndRoad Initiative / New Silk Road:
-60+ countries
-2+ continents
-Primarily land infrastructure
-3,116+ projects (construction, energy, & resource dev)
-Completed by ~40 SOE’s
-Extreme #Leverage (img)
Affected:
-69% world pop
-51% world GDP
Value:
-Est $350B USD in 5Y

Chinese Entrepreneurs are abroad and doing well:
In Africa, 2017:
-10,000+ operating Chinese Co's (10% SOE’s; many SOB backed)
-12% (USD $500B) of the continent’s industrial output

CN FDI in #Africa went from 2% of US in '00 to 55% in '14

With this growth comes debt.

$325B USD of debt maturing between 2019-2021 (contrastingly, the United States has nearly 10% of this burden, at a cool $39bn)

How will China deleverage, and shelter interest coverage ratios and manage to sustain minimum cash needed for
operations?

Debt --> Trade

Tariffs are not a NEW issue.

We learned 2019 #Tariffs are result of 20+ yrs of #bipartisan (Yes, #Obama; #TPP) U.S. complaints:
-forced tech transfers
-lack of market access #freemarkets
-uneven corp. playing field
-potential currency #manipulation

#tradewar

Trade -> #SLOC

Aggressive pursuit of disputed territorial claims, esp Straits of #Malacca:
-1.5 nautical-mile strait
-Malaysia
-an astounding 82% of Chinese #oil imports travel
-25% of global maritime trade
-direct maritime passage to Africa and Asia

..enter #SubmarineCables.

The #SubmarineCables in the Straits of #Malacca transmit 30TB/s of worlds’ data. #dataprivacy

Data is the new oil; #transoceaniccables are the literal pipelines

Notice where these lines are?

At epicenter of #data is the real corporate espionage that has beleaguered the expansion of China’s #5G rollout, and #Huawei
Apprehension towards cheap, subsidized hardware revolve around malicious capabilities hidden within..

We see new cases almost weekly,

See:

Honeywell

Honeywell announcement is straight from State Dept, as of 3 May 21.

71 classified ITAR items material to next-generation warfighting tech have been successfully lifted over the past decade, via direct espionage, and nobody will be held accountable... a $8-13M slap on the wrist.

Many of these articles and sources were from my initial deep dive in 2019.

Much has changed since then
I will do my best to sustain the logging
Semper

I originally made this account as a conduit to funnel world events and news, here is my first tweet: https://twitter.com/MASSExpedition/status/1253182725164617730?s=20