hi everybody!

Been a while since we updated how next year's qualification journey might look for Scotland's teams. Lots of tussles going on across Europe so let's dive in!

Usual reminder that the following is correct as of today, but league positions can/will change!

3/5/2021

@RangersFC #UCL Qualifying if '20-'21 #UCL winner qualifies for '21-'22 #UCL Group Stage via domestic league:

With Chelsea now in 4th in EPL (w/5pt gap) we can start almost guaranteeing that this season's #UCL winner WILL qualify for next season's #UCL Groups via their league.

For this reason, I'm gonna proceed as if that is what will happen.

Also assuming seeds progress each round.

@RangersFC fans, no matter what else you hear, Rangers will DEFINITELY be in #UCL Q3 (Champions Path) and will be seeded.

As you can see from the above image, most of the possible opponents are starting to be confirmed as teams win their respective leagues.

A few leagues are still tight

: 2pts separate Cluj & FCSB w/6 games to go
: 3pts separate Qarabag & Neftci w/4 games to go
: 5pts separate Haifa & Tel Aviv w/4 games to go (Tel Aviv w/1 game in hand)

Note should Tel Aviv go back top in they replace FC Sheriff in Q3

So really the only real change would be if an unseeded team from Q1 or Q2 knocked out a seed.

Otherwise, Q3 and then the PO are looking pretty set.

Win Q3 and @RangersFC are guaranteed #UEL group stage football.

And a rematch with Slavia could happen in the PO tie.

3/5/2021

@CelticFC #UCL Qualifying if '20-'21 #UEL winner qualifies for '21-'22 #UCL Group Stage via domestic league

3/5/2021

@CelticFC #UCL Qualifying if '20-'21 #UEL winner DOES NOT qualify for '21-'22 #UCL Group Stage via domestic league

3/5/2021

Teams left in '20-'21 #UEL and their domestic league position

With @CelticFC it's worth considering the chances of this seasons #UEL winner qualifying/not qualifying for next seasons #UCL groups via their league

Man U are the only team left that can do this & given their 6-2 lead let's assume they are finalists

Again assume seeds progress

The first picture then is how things will look IF Man United win the #UEL

In Q2 @CelticFC play either 2nd place or team - currently Brondby and Jablonec (*we'll come back to them).

In Q3 Celtic stay seeded, and face a team from ,, or .

The 2nd picture shows how things would look if Man United DON'T win the #UEL

Notice than in Q2 @CelticFC can still face or but now also could face 2nd place - currently Rapid Vienna

In Q3, 2nd place (currently Genk) replace as one of the possible opponents.

leagues are tight

: PSV in 2nd over AZ by 1pt w/3 to play
: Spartak in 2nd over Lokomotiv by 1pt w/2 to play
: Galatasaray in 2nd over Fenerbache by 2pts w/3 to play (Fenerbache w/game in hand)
: Genk in 2nd over Anderlecht & Antwerp by 1pt w/5 to play

Remember Jablonec from ?

They are currently 2nd, 3 pts over Sparta Prague with 4 games to play

BUT Sparta have 1 game in hand AND a better goal difference

Jablonec also still have to play Slavia Prague who remain unbeaten

Any Czech football fans want to predict this for us?

Back to @CelticFC, IF they make it through Q2 and Q3 (remember they will be seeded) they likely face either

Shakhtar Donestk

or

Benfica

This is the case REGARDLESS if Man United win the #UEL league or not. Any changes based on that happen in the earlier qualifying rounds.

While @CelticFC undoubtedly have a tougher route to the #UCL , similar to @RangersFC if they win their FIRST tie (Q2) they are guaranteed at least #UEL group stage football.

What about next season's #UEL I hear you ask!

Well...

Now that the Old Firm are out the Scottish Cup (SC), whoever wins the SC will be 's #UEL representative.

They enter in the PO round where they will very likely be UNSEEDED.

This is @dundeeunitedfc & @saintmirrenfc only route into Europe

@HibernianFC are guaranteed at least 4th in league (giving them a Europa Conference League ( #UECL) spot)

And @StJohnstone could qualify for #UECL IF they finish 5th and Hibs win the SC*

*As could @LiviFCOfficial

However... given that the #UEL qualifying includes Cup Winners from + 19 drop out teams from #UCL qualifying rounds I can't with any degree of useful certainty say what the qualification journey will look like

So hold tight folks, I'll tweet more when I know more

Onto the Europa Conference League ( #UECL)

As above, mathematically there's still 4 teams who could represent us next year

Currently though it's @HibernianFC and @AberdeenFC based on league who would both enter at Q2 (Main Path).

So here's how it looks. Again, seeds progress

Provisos:

1) Where it says CW or PO these are knockout games so not possible to predict who the team will be

2) If a CW or PO winner has ALREADY qualified for either #UCL or #UEL then their spot would go to the next placed league team

3) It would be reasonable to assume that some of these teams (once confirmed) will have higher co-effs, potentially knocking 's teams down the seeding list.

#UECL Q2 (Main Path)

#UECL Q3 (Main Path)

#UECL PO (Main Path)

So...

Despite the blank spaces in Q2 - It's almost certain that @HibernianFC & @AberdeenFC will be seeded for that round

For note - both @StJohnstone & @LiviFCOfficial (who could still make the #UECL) have a club co-efficient of 6.675 so both would be seeded should they make it

As you'll see in Q2 there's no (with greatest respect) big guns to be drawn against.

But (also with greatest respect) can we really say anyone would be scared of a trip to Scotland?

Get through Q2 and Q3 starts looking tasty.

@AberdeenFC just scrap into the seeds (but league position changes in or could bump them down)

@HibernianFC (and @StJohnstone & @LiviFCOfficial should they make it) would be UNSEEDED in this round.

You'll notice the big names popping up in Q3

Basel
Copenhagen
Lokomotiv
LASK
FCSB
PAOK
BATE
Fenerbache
Molde
Rosenborg

For Hibs - it's a daunting task.

Even (seeded) Aberdeen could get a team from

Make it through Q3 into the PO, it's certain any Scottish team would be UNSEEDED

In summary, Q2 should/could be winnable

Q3 - luck of the draw... maybe

PO - Good luck lads, we are all behind you

Remember, lose in any round and that's it. Out of Europe completely

Questions?