https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👋" title="Winkende Hand" aria-label="Emoji: Winkende Hand"> hi everybody!

Been a while since we updated how next year& #39;s qualification journey might look for Scotland& #39;s teams. Lots of tussles going on across Europe so let& #39;s dive in!

Usual reminder that the following is correct as of today, but league positions can/will change!
3/5/2021

@RangersFC #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> Qualifying if & #39;20-& #39;21 #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> winner qualifies for & #39;21-& #39;22 #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> Group Stage via domestic league:
With Chelsea now in 4th in EPL (w/5pt gap) we can start almost guaranteeing that this season& #39;s #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> winner WILL qualify for next season& #39;s #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> Groups via their league.

For this reason, I& #39;m gonna proceed as if that is what will happen.

Also assuming seeds progress each round.
@RangersFC fans, no matter what else you hear, Rangers will DEFINITELY be in #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> Q3 (Champions Path) and will be seeded.

As you can see from the above image, most of the possible opponents are starting to be confirmed as teams win their respective leagues.
A few leagues are still tight

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇴" title="Flagge von Rumänien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Rumänien">: 2pts separate Cluj & FCSB w/6 games to go
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇿" title="Flagge von Aserbaidschan" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Aserbaidschan">: 3pts separate Qarabag & Neftci w/4 games to go
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flagge von Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Israel">: 5pts separate Haifa & Tel Aviv w/4 games to go (Tel Aviv w/1 game in hand)

Note should Tel Aviv go back top in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇱" title="Flagge von Israel" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Israel"> they replace FC Sheriff in Q3
So really the only real change would be if an unseeded team from Q1 or Q2 knocked out a seed.

Otherwise, Q3 and then the PO are looking pretty set.

Win Q3 and @RangersFC are guaranteed #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> group stage football.

And a rematch with Slavia could happen in the PO tie.
3/5/2021

@CelticFC #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> Qualifying if & #39;20-& #39;21 #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> winner qualifies for & #39;21-& #39;22 #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> Group Stage via domestic league
3/5/2021

@CelticFC #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> Qualifying if & #39;20-& #39;21 #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> winner DOES NOT qualify for & #39;21-& #39;22 #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> Group Stage via domestic league
3/5/2021

Teams left in & #39;20-& #39;21 #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> and their domestic league position
With @CelticFC it& #39;s worth considering the chances of this seasons #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> winner qualifying/not qualifying for next seasons #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> groups via their league

Man U are the only team left that can do this & given their 6-2 lead let& #39;s assume they are finalists

Again assume seeds progress
The first picture then is how things will look IF Man United win the #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt="">

In Q2 @CelticFC play either 2nd place https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇰" title="Flagge von Dänemark" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Dänemark"> or https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇿" title="Flagge der Tschechischen Republik" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Tschechischen Republik"> team - currently Brondby and Jablonec (*we& #39;ll come back to them).

In Q3 Celtic stay seeded, and face a team from https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇳🇱" title="Flagge der Niederlande" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Niederlande">,https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland">,https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei"> or https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇹" title="Flagge von Österreich" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Österreich">.
The 2nd picture shows how things would look if Man United DON& #39;T win the #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt="">

Notice than in Q2 @CelticFC can still face https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇰" title="Flagge von Dänemark" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Dänemark"> or https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇿" title="Flagge der Tschechischen Republik" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Tschechischen Republik"> but now also could face 2nd place https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇹" title="Flagge von Österreich" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Österreich"> - currently Rapid Vienna

In Q3, 2nd place https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇪" title="Flagge von Belgien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Belgien"> (currently Genk) replace https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇹" title="Flagge von Österreich" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Österreich"> as one of the possible opponents.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇳🇱" title="Flagge der Niederlande" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Niederlande">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇪" title="Flagge von Belgien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Belgien"> leagues are tight

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇳🇱" title="Flagge der Niederlande" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Niederlande">: PSV in 2nd over AZ by 1pt w/3 to play
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇷🇺" title="Flagge von Russland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Russland">: Spartak in 2nd over Lokomotiv by 1pt w/2 to play
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">: Galatasaray in 2nd over Fenerbache by 2pts w/3 to play (Fenerbache w/game in hand)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇪" title="Flagge von Belgien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Belgien">: Genk in 2nd over Anderlecht & Antwerp by 1pt w/5 to play
Remember Jablonec from https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇿" title="Flagge der Tschechischen Republik" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Tschechischen Republik">?

They are currently 2nd, 3 pts over Sparta Prague with 4 games to play

BUT Sparta have 1 game in hand AND a better goal difference

Jablonec also still have to play Slavia Prague who remain unbeaten

Any Czech football fans want to predict this for us?
Back to @CelticFC, IF they make it through Q2 and Q3 (remember they will be seeded) they likely face either

Shakhtar Donestk

or

Benfica

This is the case REGARDLESS if Man United win the #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> league or not. Any changes based on that happen in the earlier qualifying rounds.
While @CelticFC undoubtedly have a tougher route to the #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> , similar to @RangersFC if they win their FIRST tie (Q2) they are guaranteed at least #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> group stage football.
What about next season& #39;s #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> I hear you ask!

Well...

Now that the Old Firm are out the Scottish Cup (SC), whoever wins the SC will be https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿" title="Flagge von Schottland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Schottland">& #39;s #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> representative.

They enter in the PO round where they will very likely be UNSEEDED.
This is @dundeeunitedfc & @saintmirrenfc only route into Europe

@HibernianFC are guaranteed at least 4th in league (giving them a Europa Conference League ( #UECL) spot)

And @StJohnstone could qualify for #UECL IF they finish 5th and Hibs win the SC*

*As could @LiviFCOfficial
However... given that the #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> qualifying includes Cup Winners from https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇧🇪" title="Flagge von Belgien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Belgien">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇦" title="Flagge der Ukraine" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Ukraine">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇳🇱" title="Flagge der Niederlande" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Niederlande">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇹" title="Flagge von Österreich" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Österreich">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇩🇰" title="Flagge von Dänemark" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Dänemark">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇿" title="Flagge der Tschechischen Republik" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Tschechischen Republik"> + 19 drop out teams from #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> qualifying rounds I can& #39;t with any degree of useful certainty say what the qualification journey will look like

So hold tight folks, I& #39;ll tweet more when I know more
Onto the Europa Conference League ( #UECL)

As above, mathematically there& #39;s still 4 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿" title="Flagge von Schottland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Schottland"> teams who could represent us next year

Currently though it& #39;s @HibernianFC and @AberdeenFC based on league who would both enter at Q2 (Main Path).

So here& #39;s how it looks. Again, seeds progress
Provisos:

1) Where it says CW or PO these are knockout games so not possible to predict who the team will be

2) If a CW or PO winner has ALREADY qualified for either #UCL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> or #UEL https://abs.twimg.com/hashflags... draggable="false" alt=""> then their spot would go to the next placed league team
3) It would be reasonable to assume that some of these teams (once confirmed) will have higher co-effs, potentially knocking https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿" title="Flagge von Schottland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Schottland">& #39;s teams down the seeding list.
#UECL Q2 (Main Path)
#UECL Q3 (Main Path)
#UECL PO (Main Path)
So...

Despite the blank spaces in Q2 - It& #39;s almost certain that @HibernianFC & @AberdeenFC will be seeded for that round

For note - both @StJohnstone & @LiviFCOfficial (who could still make the #UECL) have a club co-efficient of 6.675 so both would be seeded should they make it
As you& #39;ll see in Q2 there& #39;s no (with greatest respect) big guns to be drawn against.

But (also with greatest respect) can we really say anyone would be scared of a trip to Scotland?
Get through Q2 and Q3 starts looking tasty.

@AberdeenFC just scrap into the seeds (but league position changes in https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇭🇷" title="Flagge von Kroatien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Kroatien"> or https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇦🇿" title="Flagge von Aserbaidschan" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Aserbaidschan"> could bump them down)

@HibernianFC (and @StJohnstone & @LiviFCOfficial should they make it) would be UNSEEDED in this round.
You& #39;ll notice the big names popping up in Q3

Basel
Copenhagen
Lokomotiv
LASK
FCSB
PAOK
BATE
Fenerbache
Molde
Rosenborg

For Hibs - it& #39;s a daunting task.

Even (seeded) Aberdeen could get a team from https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇬🇷" title="Flagge von Griechenland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Griechenland">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇹🇷" title="Flagge der Türkei" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Türkei">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇺🇦" title="Flagge der Ukraine" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge der Ukraine">
Make it through Q3 into the PO, it& #39;s certain any Scottish team would be UNSEEDED

In summary, Q2 should/could be winnable

Q3 - luck of the draw... maybe

PO - Good luck lads, we are all behind you

Remember, lose in any round and that& #39;s it. Out of Europe completely

Questions?
You can follow @scotlandscoeff1.
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