Making The Case for Kyle Pitts as the Dynasty Rookie 1.01 in All Formats

HOF-Level Prospect
≠ Ebron, Njoku, OJH, or Engram
LEGIT Unicorn
TE’s ARE Predictable
TE Scarcity >>>
Replaceability
Lifetime Value

[A MEGA-THREAD]

To make things clear – I’m NOT going to knock Trevor Lawrence’s case for 1.01.

He’s the Consensus 1.01 for a reason.

I won’t argue against Fields or Lance either.

I’m simply going to argue that Kyle Pitts has just as good a case for 1.01 – if not a better one.

In order to make that case, I’m going to focus heavily on dismissing what I believe to be false or misleading narratives.

There are (at least) 6:

-“We’ve seen RD1 TE’s fail before…”
-“TE’s rarely succeed as ROOKIES…”
-“The ELITE TE’s came out of nowhere…”
-“TE’s are UNPREDICTABLE…”
-“You only need to start 1 TE…”
-“You can just trade for Pitts after YR1…”

I can basically guarantee you ANY argument against Pitts (or TE’s) involves at least one of these narratives.

“We’ve seen RD1 TE’s fail before…”

People believe that Kyle Pitts is just the latest in a long-line of highly-drafted TE’s who haven’t lived up to the hype.

Ebron, Njoku, OJH, & Engram are often cited as examples.

Why should Kyle Pitts be any different?

I’ll tell you why – because ALL of the data suggests it:

-Height
-Speed
-Catch Radius
-Breakout Age
-Dominator Rating
-College YPR
-TD-Rate
-Alignment Versatility
-Heisman Accolades
-Draft Capital

All of it.

Pitts vs Ebron

Pitts’ profile has ZERO red flags.

Ebron’s profile had MULTIPLE.

If you did your research – you wouldn’t have been surprised when he didn’t live up to expectations.

Pitts ≠ Ebron

Pitts vs Njoku

Njoku was a solid prospect, but definitely, unequivocally ≠ Pitts

Pitts vs OJH

OJH was hyped as a “HOF-level” prospect by some – but there’s an important distinction.

He was “well-rounded.”

Pitts is (rightfully) being hyped STRICTLY as a dominant receiver.

Exhibit A: the polarity of their production profiles.

Pitts led Florida as a SOPH. & JR.

Then declared.

OJH never led his team, played 4 years, & was outproduced by:

- Amari, DeAndrew White, & Christion Jones. (SOPH. year)
- Ridley, Ardarius Stewart, & Richard Mullaney (JR. year)
- Ridley & Stewart again (SR. year)

Pitts ≠ OJH

Pitts vs Engram

Out of the 4 “busts” – Engram was the closest as a prospect.

& he wasn’t really even close.

But Engram WAS the most productive, athletic, & “WR-like.”

& (NOT) coincidentally – he bucked the “Rookie TE’s suck” trend, with 64/722/6 YR1.

Kyle Pitts lined up in the slot or out wide for 35% of his targets during his final season at Florida (PFF) & is essentially GUARANTEEED to see “WR-like” usage – even as a rookie.

If Pitts puts up an Engram-esque/Rookie-WR-esque 64/722/6 YR1– he’s almost guaranteed to be Dynasty TE1 (& potentially a consensus RD1 startup pick) heading into YR2.

Now – imagine combining Engram, Ebron, Njoku, & OJH into one…

It still wouldn’t = Kyle Pitts.

Kyle Pitts is a LEGIT UNICORN.

Not a single TE stacks up.

Not Vernon Davis.

Not Gronk.

Not Gonzo.

Certainly not Ebron, Njoku, OJH, or Engram.

NO ONE.

EVER.

Kyle Pitts is quite literally the greatest TE prospect of all-time.

& he comes into the NFL at just 20 YEARS OLD.

He’s six-foot-six.

With 4.4 speed.

& the longest wingspan measured on a TE in the last 20 years…

He’s the first TE to finish top-10 in the HEISMAN in 43 years…

He’s the highest-drafted TE – EVER.

He’s not just generational – he’s MULTI-generational.

There’s only one TE who compares – Darren Waller.

Pitts vs Waller

Waller is nearly identical – with only BOA, TD-rate, & Draft Capital as differentiators.

Late BOA is no biggie for TE’s…

Waller’s TD-rate was in a triple-option GT offense…

& Waller would’ve had the Draft Capital – if he didn’t have KNOWN drug issues…

(Listen to 7:20 specifically)

Waller didn’t “come out of nowhere” – he was a DOMINANT prospect who PREDICTABLY succeeded (once he corrected his life).

He just slipped through the Draft Capital cracks because he had drug issues & the NFL knew about it.

Now imagine a brand new, better, 20-YEAR-OLD Waller, with zero known drug issues, Heisman recognition, early-RD1 Draft Capital – and a fresh shot at the NFL…

That’s Kyle Pitts.

& it’s FANTASTIC that he’s so highly-drafted.

Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

DRAFT CAPITAL MATTERS.

Just listen to Drew: https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1362957334134153222?s=20

It matters.

A lot.

& Darren Waller would’ve had RD1 or RD2 Draft Capital too – if not for MAJOR character concerns which made him borderline undraftable.

& he’s not the only elite TE who would’ve had more Draft Capital if not for extenuating circumstances…

Travis Kelce was suspended his ENTIRE sophomore season at CIN.

& missed the Combine while recovering from hernia surgery.

He was still drafted 3.01.

If not for BOTH character & injury concerns, he would’ve had RD1 or RD2 Draft Capital.

George Kittle?

Checked every production & athletic box.

But dealt with NUMEROUS injuries at Iowa – missing 4 games as a JR. & having his SR. year derailed by planter fasciitis.

Give him a healthy (or healthier) college career & there’s zero chance he falls to RD5.

Waller, Kelce, & Kittle were all DOMINANT prospects who PREDICTABLY succeeded.

THEY WERE ALL PREDICTABLE.

& the next one is staring you right in the face…

Not only is Kyle Pitts the greatest TE prospect we’ve EVER seen (at a predictable position) – but he plays the single scarcest position in fantasy football.

Last year, 116 players scored 150+ Points:

29 QB’s
30 RB’s
50 WR’s
7 TE’s

In a 12-team league, that’s more than enough QB’s & RB’s for 2-per team, more than enough WR’s for 4-per, but not enough TE’s for 1-per.

TE is THE SCARCEST position in the game.

& look at 2020’s TE landscape:

Kelce – TE1 – 20.9 PPG
Waller – TE2 – 17.4 PPG
Kittle – TE3 – 15.6 PPG

& then a ~ 10 PPG-drop from TE1…

Andrews – TE4 – 12.2 PPG
Tonyan/Thomas – TE5 – 11.0 PPG
Hockenson – TE7 – 10.9 PPG
& 15 other TE’s who averaged between 8.5-10.6 PPG.

Getting a TE who produces 15+ PPG is a SIGNIFICANT advantage over almost your entire league.

Getting one who can produce 17-20+ PPG is a CHEAT-CODE.

If Pitts is the next Waller, Kelce, or Kittle (he is) & he does become a 17-20 PPG scorer (he will) – he’s going to provide you with a 5-7 PPG advantage over the majority of your leaguemates… for 5+ years.

If you pass on that…

There are only 3 current TE’s capable of replacing 15+ PPG – and they’re all rapidly approaching age 30 (or are past it).

Those 3 are FANTASTIC short-term, but you can’t guarantee anything past 2023.

Once they retire – there might only be 2-3 other TE’s (Noah Fant?) who score 15+ PPG.

That means that for the foreseeable future, there’s only 2-3 players who can replace Pitts’ production – if you’re lucky.

His production quite literally may become irreplaceable – & quickly.

If you pass on T-Law at 1.01, there’s:

- age-discounted QB’s you can trade for now (Brady, A-Rod, Tanny, Stafford, Fitzy) & in the near-future (Russ)

- young QB’s with upside (Hurts, Tua, even Darnold)

- incoming rookies in 2022, 2023, & 2024

There’re simply more pathways to replacing production at QB (via trades & incoming rookie picks) than there are pathways to replacing production at TE (via trades & incoming rookie picks) – by a significant margin.

The obvious play is to TRADE DOWN from 1.01.

& select Pitts at 1.02 or 1.03 (or 1.04).

But if you can’t trade down & guarantee Pitts there, you CAN take him 1.01 – in good conscience.

ALL of the data supports him.

& he is the closest thing to a guaranteed cheat-code we’ve EVER seen.

If the ship goes down – I am going down with it.

(Statistics compiled from PlayerProfiler & Pro Football Reference)