Some thought on Joe Manchin:

(1) There's a lot of time for him to come around and vote for things before the end of this Congress.

(2) He will NEVER have as much leverage as right now to get things he wants. After midterms, balance of power almost certainly shifts.

1/x

(3) He does have a history of conservative posturing followed by eventually voting with Democrats.

(4) Therefore, he's quite likely just being defiant to appeal to his conservative base, but he still wants federal dollars spent in his state (jobs, etc.).

2/x

(5) The only way to get those dollars is to eventually let the Democrats pass some of these major bills, and to attach earmarks for his constituents.

(6) If the Dems pass NOTHING, he's left empty handed, too.

3/x

(7) Given all this, I think we'll get at least a few pieces of Biden's agenda passed before the midterms. He just wants to play the conservative hold-out as long as he can.

4/x

(8) Remember, Manchin's most important vote was the vote for Chuck Schumer as Majority Leader. If we antagonize him too much, he does have the option of leaving the party and caucusing with the GOP. That's the nightmare scenario because it means we'll pass NOTHING else.

5/x

(9) Furthermore, it's not like a much more liberal Democrat could win in West Virginia. Trump carried WV by 38.9% in 2020 (only down slightly from the 42.1% margin in 2016).

6/x

(10) Therefore, all this talk about primarying Manchin is counterproductive. It antagonizes him (#8) and it's likely to produce an unelectable candidate, anyway (#9).

7/x

(11) Instead, please focus on 2022 and electing more Democrats. Focus on sitting GOP Senators who are vulnerable. (Ron Johnson, I'm looking at you.)

(12) Once Manchin isn't our 50th vote, he won't be able to slow things down for us. (Same goes for Sinema.)

8/x

(13) I know it's really frustrating, especially with him saying this nonsense about D.C. not being eligible to be a state w/o an amendment. We'll just have to get more Senators the old-fashioned way, then fix it post-2022.

9/x

(14) But, in the end, it's about spending your energy where it does the most good, and flailing powerlessly at Manchin right now literally does us no good at all.

(15) Ignore him, and his power diminishes. Elect more Dem senators, and his power is gone. We can do this.

10/10