So about Tyler Herro, people keep thinking that the HEAT struggled because Herro and Duncan were starting together and that made us lose games. WRONG. Let’s dive deep into the start of the season for the HEAT.

This is a thread.

Herro starts 10 games with the HEAT before getting injured, he averages:

17.6 pts - 6.7 reb - 3.8 ast - 2.8 tov on 47.0 FG% and 30.2 3P%

But the HEAT start a disappointing season with a 4-6 record.

Fans are mad, they are not having it. They blame the Herro/Duncan combo for it

Despite Jimmy missing 4 of those games after coming off a Finals trip HEAT fans feel the team should be winning those games. Let’s recap the games;

Orl L
Nop W
Mil L
Mil W
Dal L
OKC W
Bos L
Was W
Phi L
Phi L

You can see those weren’t easy opponents.

What makes matters worse is Spo doesn’t know what the hell to do and is lost with the lineups. He’s trying to find something.

For the first 10 games the HEAT go on to start 7 different lineups in 10games... (injuries force Spo to change some lines)

But let’s go thru those lines

Herro/Duncan/Bam are playing in all 7 lineups, these are the other guys for each lineup (in order of appearance)

Jimmy/Moe -15 Net
Jimmy/Meyers -14 Net
Moe/Meyers -200 Net
AB/Iggy -15 Net
Jimmy/Iggy -41 Net
Jimmy/Kelly +12 Net (3 games)

That’s a different line each game for 5g

After “finding the right combination” COVID hits and the HEAT are forced to play with 8 players.

Herro/Gabe/Duncan/Kelly/Precious start 2 games vs Philly. After that Herro misses 7 games.

Despite the different lineups, the good opponents, Jimmy being out and playing with GLeag

The Herro and Duncan combo during those 10 games had a 107 DefRtg with a -3.4 NetRtg

Keep in mind the minutes they shared with those horrible starting lineups and then with Gabe/Precious against a healthy Philly team.

Let’s move to the line that worked; the Herro/Duncan/Jimmy/Kelly/Bam combo.

That lineup for the season is the best one we have posting a 101 DefRtg with a +17.8 NetRtg

Herro and Duncan played there.

When Herro was healthy they only played 3 games together before the COVID hit.

Those 3 games were;

vs OKC (blowout W)
vs BOS (close L with the bench blowing the game) all starters minus Bam were positive, Dragic -8, Iggy -21, AB -3
vs WAS (close W with the bench again almost blowing it)

The starting lineup for those games was a +12 and yet fans insisted

Herro/Duncan was a bad combination and blamed mostly them (and injuries) for the L’s.

During those 10 games Nunn only plays 5 games averages 12 mins and is scoring 5.2pts on 38% FG shooting 11% from 3.

Herro gets injured or COVID Protocols whatever... he misses 7 games, Jimmy also misses the same 7 and the HEAT play a tough schedule facing;

Det L
Det W
Tor W
Tor L
Brk L
Brk L
Den L

During those games despite Nunn and Dragic being healthy Spo decides to start Gabe first.

The core 3 for this stretch are Duncan/Kelly/Bam

The rest of the starters for those games are;

Gabe/KZ (Nunn and Dragic are available)
Dragic/KZ
Dragic/Gabe x2
Dragic/Moe
Dragic/KZ
Nunn/KZ (Dragic gets injured)

Now Dragic is out, Nunn is back on the SL and Herro is returning

With Jimmy also returning against the Kings Spo decides to start KZ instead of Kelly, so what worked before is out of question. KZ ends up playing 7 minutes with a -14 and Kelly ends up getting the PF minutes. The HEAT win a close one. Nunn doesn’t play for some reason.

Then come Cha, Spo says “fuck KZ, Kelly was working with the starting lineup” and he starts the best lineup we have had... that lineup was a +29 Net in 9 mins against the Hornets but we lost that game by 9. Monk happened, Dragic had 3pts in 25 mins and Nunn again, didn’t play?

So we get the Wizards, HEAT are 1-6 in their last 7 games. Wizards are the laughing stock of the league. EASY WIN! Spo starts the same lineup that is working. The line posts a 93 DefRtg with a +11 Net in 13 mins but again the bench struggles and we lose the game by 3

The bench had 27 pts. Dragic had only 10. Iggy and Dragic together were a -15.1 (-7 in 18 mins on court)

Once again whatever good the starting lineup with Herro/Duncan/Kelly does gets erased by an horrible bench with Dragic CLEARLY struggling.

Nunn again... not playing?

Remember, the bench is struggling, I don’t know why Nunn is not playing but after coming off the bench when Herro was out and contributing then starts and contribute when Dragic is injured he doesn’t play again while Dragic & co are struggling off the bench.

To this point Herro (despite missing time) is averaging

17.2 pts - 6.1 reb - 3.9 ast - 2.9 tov on 45.3 FG% and 32.5 3P% that’s pretty damn good for a 2nd year player with no off season/summer league/training camp

But what does Spo says? Let’s sit him. Start Dragic.

Next game against the Wizards Dragic starts, the starting lineup does good and we blow them out. But the difference is off the bench now we have Herro AND NUNN (hey welcome Nunn) contributing 42 pts by themselves. The entire bench without Nunn and with Dragic scored 27pts last G

But bad news, after starting once Dragic is now injured so what do we do? Well, gotta stick with Herro off the bench right? Start the guy that didn’t play a mins for games but was starting last season. And so Nunn starts. He does a good job but so is Herro off the bench.

And that’s how Herro off the bench starts. Then the trade deadline is nearing and he (same with Duncan) is struggling. After the TD both players start balling. But then Herro starts struggling again and a lot of off the court stuff regarding Katya and himself get leaked.

He is inconsistent, having good games and bad games. But the team is winning. He sits a game and then comes back to then missing 3 games and counting. This is not a thread to say Herro criticism is not deserved and that he’s playing good. This is a thread for the ones that

blame Herro/Duncan for the bad HEAT start. And to understand how crazy was the start of the season for the HEAT and for Herro who had to play with 100 different starting lineups. He still contributed and the HEAT lost winnable games because the bench (mainly Dragic) struggled and

Spo wasn’t playing Nunn. He got the short end of the stick by doing nothing wrong and was forced to come off the bench. I didn’t liked because I thought the Herro/Duncan combo was good out there and it gave Herro more time with Jimmy. Also Herro and Dragic off the bench? Really?

But that was the decision made and while some people think it worked with Herro I call bullshit, I see the same confused kid that doesn’t know if he has to playmake or shoot. If he has to play like CP3 or like Lou-Will. Herro is great when he is fluid. When he is water.

When he isn’t thinking. He just let’s it fly. IDK if the struggling is because of off the court stuff. But I do know how I want him to play. If he’s missing shots playing like that is ok.

But the HEAT winning games when Herro went to the bench has nothing to do with Herro not being good enough to start and everything to do with Herro providing off the bench unlike Dragic, and Nunn being inserted back to the rotation to contribute like always.

Let’s check some numbers;

Dragic and Herro
-10.65 on 470 mins

Dragic, Herro and Iggy
-17 in 210 mins

Dragic and Herro with Iggy out
-5 in 251 mins

Dragic and Nunn
+6 in 336

Nunn and Jimmy
+6 in 692

Herro and Jimmy
+2 in 753

For me, Nunn/Dragic off the bench is much better than Herro/Dragic off the bench.

Interestingly enough, both starting lineups (with Kelly or with Ariza at 4) have better numbers with Herro in instead of Nunn.

Starting lineups stats. https://twitter.com/themadheatfan/status/1388576826277117957

What I learnt researching for this is;
- Spo has been all over the place with lineups and Nunn. To not play Nunn some nights with the bench struggling is...
- Dragic/Herro don’t work
- Nunn/Dragic apparently do
- Herro should be starting
- Bench has always been the problem