Are you ready for a long painful Twitter thread on vaccine strategies?

Let's start with these two conflicting headlines. One says delaying 2nd doses is dangerous. The other says that a 1st dose blitz is highly effective.

Ready for the kicker? Both are correct.
But how much does the efficacy drop? On further review of the source data, I wasn't as impressed with the findings as stated in the article. Finding myself stuck, I went with my favorite go to solution and talked to an expert.

This is the world of the epidemiologist.
He supported my suspicion and explained that the confidence interval is so wide that the difference in efficacy for the Pfizer shot could be as low is 1-5%, not the huge drop that was stated.

The data is however suggestive that efficacy does drop.

So where does that leave us?
It actually leaves with more uncertainty.

We don't have data going out 4 months to support efficacy of a single dose.

We don't have comparable populations to Scotland due to differences in initial infection rates.

We don't know how the variants will impact vaccine efficacy.
You can follow @DrJacobsRad.
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