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Bengal's demographic disaster and why Mamata is even relevant? 
WB's corruption, cut money, unemployment, corruption, crimes, etc. are so rampant that there is no running away from the fact that TMC raj was disaster. This election should have been one sided but..
(1/n)
WB's corruption, cut money, unemployment, corruption, crimes, etc. are so rampant that there is no running away from the fact that TMC raj was disaster. This election should have been one sided but..
(1/n)
TMC will give BJP a fight and will likely win atleast 120+ seats despite doing so badly. Why?
Let's look at some demographic data. Below is decadal growth rate (2001-2011) of two major communities in Bengal District wise
H: Hindus, M: Mu$lim$
(2/n)
Let's look at some demographic data. Below is decadal growth rate (2001-2011) of two major communities in Bengal District wise
H: Hindus, M: Mu$lim$
(2/n)
Border districts
Darjeeling: H=1.04 M=2.30
Jalpaiguri: H=1.14 M=2.07
Koch Bihar: H=1.15 M=1.98
Uttar Dinajpur: H=1.74 M=2.98
Dakshin Dinajpur: H=1.08 M=1.43
Maldah: H=1.80 M=2.49
Murshidabad: H=1.19 M=2.60
Nadia: H=0.97 M=1.81
North 24 : H=0.93 M=1.94
South 24: H=1.33 M=2.64
3/n
Darjeeling: H=1.04 M=2.30
Jalpaiguri: H=1.14 M=2.07
Koch Bihar: H=1.15 M=1.98
Uttar Dinajpur: H=1.74 M=2.98
Dakshin Dinajpur: H=1.08 M=1.43
Maldah: H=1.80 M=2.49
Murshidabad: H=1.19 M=2.60
Nadia: H=0.97 M=1.81
North 24 : H=0.93 M=1.94
South 24: H=1.33 M=2.64
3/n
Non Border Districts
Birbhum: H=1.21 M=2.27
Howrah: H=1.03 M=2.16
Burdwan: H=1.04 M=1.72
Hoogly: H=0.84 M=1.39
Bankura: H=1.26 M=2.11
Puruliya: H=1.21 M=2.57
Mednipur: H=1.43 M=2.52
Almost in every district M growth rate around 2wice of H growth rate.
(4/n)
Birbhum: H=1.21 M=2.27
Howrah: H=1.03 M=2.16
Burdwan: H=1.04 M=1.72
Hoogly: H=0.84 M=1.39
Bankura: H=1.26 M=2.11
Puruliya: H=1.21 M=2.57
Mednipur: H=1.43 M=2.52
Almost in every district M growth rate around 2wice of H growth rate.
(4/n)
Size of M population in different decades
1951: M=19.85%
1961: M=20%
1971: M=20.46%
1981: M=21.51%
1991: M=23.61%
2001: M=25.25%
2011: M=27.01%
2021: M~28.8% (estimated)
Meanwhile East Bengal now Bangladesh had 33% Hindus at 1951,now less than 9%.
(5/n)
1951: M=19.85%
1961: M=20%
1971: M=20.46%
1981: M=21.51%
1991: M=23.61%
2001: M=25.25%
2011: M=27.01%
2021: M~28.8% (estimated)
Meanwhile East Bengal now Bangladesh had 33% Hindus at 1951,now less than 9%.
(5/n)
This is even more baffling because after 1971 war lots of Bengali Hindus migrated to WB but Hindu population as % of overall population kept on decreasing. Its obviously clear that Ms are playing a long term demographic game and voting in bulk to parties like TMC.
(6/n)
(6/n)
BJP victory tomorrow will be a short term win if we don't understand this long term demographic game. From 19.85% to 29%. What will you do when they reach 40% and BJP can never mathematically win? This trend needs reversal else be prepared for more direct action days.
(7/n)
(7/n)
