Read on Twitter
0/ $BTC "closed" April (-1.8%) the first negative month since September snapping the 1st 6 consecutive positive month streak since Nov '12-April '13. It was the first negative April since '15 with April / May from a seasonality standpoint historically the best months of the year
1/ Notably $ETH finished April +44.5% its 7th consecutive positive month which set a new record. It "closed" April +275% YTD.
2/ $BTC underperformed $ETH by 46.3% on the month the 8th worst month all time & the 2nd worst underperformance since '18 (behind January '21).
The next month has been a coin flip for $BTC absolute performance while it has outperformed $ETH 2/3 of the time in the month after.
The next month has been a coin flip for $BTC absolute performance while it has outperformed $ETH 2/3 of the time in the month after.
3/ The "theoretical cost basis" of $BTC finished +12.3% its smallest monthly increase since October (when $BTC was +28.2%) it now sits at an ATH of $19,567.
April closed at a ~195% premium which is still top 10% all time.
April closed at a ~195% premium which is still top 10% all time.
4/ The increase in the $BTC "theoretical cost basis" has started to increase at a slower rate. This is a decent proxy to tell the age of the coins moving hands.
5/ Looking at implied vol April was the lowest month for $BTC since 'Dec. It was in-line with Sept / June in terms of the last two down months for $BTC where annualized vol has been < 70
6/ This level of $BTC underperformance when the overall crypto market is up MoM is indicative of "alt season" and that's no surprise given the move in names like $DOGE +529.1% $XRP +177% $ETC +158.3% $SOL +120.6% $SRM +71.4% etc...
7/ This is how parts of 4Q17-early Jan 18 played out and ended the last bull market.
The composition of market participants for $BTC, fiat on-ramps, etc.. are all very different.
The same can't necessarily be said about the long tail of alt coins.
The composition of market participants for $BTC, fiat on-ramps, etc.. are all very different.
The same can't necessarily be said about the long tail of alt coins.
