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1/24 In the last thread
, we looked at one possible security scenario in Ireland (which is relatively benign), the demands that would be made on No 3 Ops Wing of the @IrishAirCorps and the selection of the next generation helicopters. This thread looks at two more scenarios. https://twitter.com/_IDFOC/status/1383777525466243082
, we looked at one possible security scenario in Ireland (which is relatively benign), the demands that would be made on No 3 Ops Wing of the @IrishAirCorps and the selection of the next generation helicopters. This thread looks at two more scenarios. https://twitter.com/_IDFOC/status/1383777525466243082
2/24 Scenario 2: increased activity (analogous to the Border Campaign of the 1950s) - a modest increase in-post Brexit violence results in a large increase in helicopter activity to move the limited number of troops remaining around the border area, including... @kevpipps @donlav
3/24 ...littoral tasks (as described in a previous thread) and with a specific focus on Explosive Ordnance Disposal ('EOD") transport with all necessary equipment and security internally on one aircraft. This is as a result of continuing pilot and technician shortages, which...
4/24 ...would likely prevent placing a large number of crews on continuous standby. Foreign interference stoking sectarian tensions in the cyber realm is considered highly probable. This scenario (which is not outlandish), would mandate a further increase in... @LeeRoyIreland
5/24 ...medium-sized aircraft, but also introduces a need for heavy lift aircraft. This need is driven by the EOD and security transport requirement. Specifically, it will require an aircraft capable of easily loading an EOD team, itâs robot and associated security... @Rotorblur
6/24 ...(likely one Infantry Section at a minimum). In practice, this team would have to be lifted by one aircraft as even with an accelerated training drive, crews and technicians would still be in short supply. Having two medium lift aircraft on standby 24/7 would require...
7/24 ...twice the personnel resources of one heavy lift machine. In addition, a further increase in medium lift aircraft would also be required as an increase in tasks such as Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance ('ISR'), recce and convoy security can be anticipated.
8/24 Use of helicopters for movement of personnel that would be considered High Value Targets ('HVTs') would also occur at this level, similar to the old âAnnex Fâ flights that routinely operated from Baldonnel to Belfast each week. @koceallaigh @ger_cosgrove @cathalm @seanfionn
9/24 Of note, an increased training capability would also be required. As mentioned in an earlier thread, this would require the lease or purchase of extra H135s or similar, in addition to the outsourcing that is already occurring. In this case, it would require 22 medium...
10/24 ...sized aircraft, based on the training, trooping and EOD lift requirements or 15 medium sized aircraft and 5 heavy lift aircraft in the CH 47F size class. The training fleet would need not less than 6 aircraft, more if operational taskings for 302 Sqdn also increased.
11/24 Scenario 3: severe threat (activity levels analogous to The Troubles) - a large scale containment operation would be required along the border area to deal with violence returning to previous levels. This could result from a contested result in a border poll or a... @RACO_DF
12/24 ...successful Scottish Independence referendum provoking Unionist paramilitaries to adopt a Carson style approach to assuring UK military presence in NI with associated Republican response. No 3 Ops Wing would be tasked with increased ISR, normal... @CllrPioSmith
14/24 ...military tasks and maintaining assets sufficient to stand up an airborne Quick Reaction Force ('QFR') of Company Strength. The greatest threat to domestic security in the near to medium future comes from the reactions by the various armed groups in NI (and potential...
15/24 ...third nation sponsors) to a border poll. In short, one could see an entirely peaceful acceptance of any result by all parties as the least likely of all options. In the event that violence returns to previous levels, we cannot assume that Ireland will be spared from...
16/24 ...direct threat. In fact, the reverse is more probable. We must be clear that the Ireland of today is not the Ireland of the 1960-90s in terms of its position in the world. More would be expected of us on the international stage in terms of defence expenditure to meet...
17/24 ..this threat, especially as a member of the UN Security Council. The people of the State would expect to see more being done in their name to counteract a return to violence and prevent its spread here. In this case, an increased helicopter force including plentiful..
18/24 ...armed light recce, medium lift and heavy lift would be required. A standing capability to airlift a QRF equal to one Infantry Company would be needed. This requirement is based on the fact that while boots on the ground are essential in dealing with... @SpotterIrish
19/24 ...this kind of conflict, there are not and will not be enough of them to deploy operationally at any kind of short notice. Every other conflict in modern times where this issue has had to be faced has become a helicopter war (Vietnam, Algeria, Rhodesia, Afghanistan...
20/24 ...as examples). Disregard the politics of these conflicts and look at the tactical requirements. Longer distances than the available troops can cover by land and a need to concentrate numbers quickly with the element of surprise = helicopters @AS332L2AW139 @Michaelkelly707
21/24 Strength and establishment will not be entirely dissimilar to scenario 2, but increased consideration will need to be paid to defensive aides and airframe survivability. The major difference will be an increased requirement for ISR capable airframes... @kforfitz_Wayne
22/24 ..for use in direct support of border Infantry Battalions. These would be essential to fill in the gaps that arise when relying on a purely ground-based force with limited observational horizons. This scenario would likely preclude the use.. @ConorHogarty @dohville @IRLCoDF
23/24 ...of the AW139 as a primary operational type, as it has not been tested for survivability in the way that, for example, a S70i Blackhawk has. It must be expected that any paramilitary group arising in NI today will not be guided by the IRAs âGreen Bookâ... @slandail_nssi
24/24 ...which precluded use of force against Irish security forces. In this regard, attrition replacements must be possible â this once again means an aircraft with an open production line. (Thanks to @declan275 for content). @GCraughwell @BerryCathal @IRLDeptDefence @JakeTrant