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EXCLUSIVE
@krishnadas56 and I spoke to around a dozen scientists and officials to piece together the events that led up to India's massive second surge in COVID-19 cases.
We found that the govt had some early warnings but didn't act quickly.
A thread. http://reut.rs/3nBOhrO
@krishnadas56 and I spoke to around a dozen scientists and officials to piece together the events that led up to India's massive second surge in COVID-19 cases.
We found that the govt had some early warnings but didn't act quickly.
A thread. http://reut.rs/3nBOhrO
Our key findings:
- Govt was warned early about potentially dangerous COVID-19 variants
- Large gatherings continue for weeks after, unabated
- By early-mid April, key officials believe large scale lockdowns required
- Days later, PM Modi publicly argues against lockdowns
- Govt was warned early about potentially dangerous COVID-19 variants
- Large gatherings continue for weeks after, unabated
- By early-mid April, key officials believe large scale lockdowns required
- Days later, PM Modi publicly argues against lockdowns
Today, India posted a record daily rise of 401,993 new coronavirus cases, while deaths from COVID-19 jumped by 3,523 over the past 24 hours.
Our reporting suggest that India couldn't have avoided a second wave - but we surely could have move quicker and been better prepared.
Our reporting suggest that India couldn't have avoided a second wave - but we surely could have move quicker and been better prepared.
"Policy has to be based on evidence and not the other way around," said Shahid Jameel of INSACOG, which warned about one variant.
“I am worried that science was not taken into account to drive policy... As scientists we provide the evidence, policymaking is the job of the govt.”
“I am worried that science was not taken into account to drive policy... As scientists we provide the evidence, policymaking is the job of the govt.”
The findings of INSACOG, comprising of India's top 10 research labs, readied by early-March, were not immediately released.
A draft was sent to Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, who reports directly to the PM, according to one scientist.
The govt didn't respond to our questions.
A draft was sent to Cabinet Secretary Rajiv Gauba, who reports directly to the PM, according to one scientist.
The govt didn't respond to our questions.
By early April, some key govt scientists wanted strict measures in place.
Sujeet Singh, director of the National Centre for Disease Control in New Delhi, was among them.
The national COVID-19 taskforce that met on April 15 was also in favour of lockdowns, another official said.
Sujeet Singh, director of the National Centre for Disease Control in New Delhi, was among them.
The national COVID-19 taskforce that met on April 15 was also in favour of lockdowns, another official said.
"It was highlighted very, very clearly that unless drastic measures are taken now, it will be too late to prevent the mortality which we are going to see," Singh said on April 19, referring to a govt meeting the previous day.
Some in govt were also concerned about law and order.
Some in govt were also concerned about law and order.
But in his address to the nation on April 20, PM Modi argued against lockdowns.
“We have to save the country from lockdowns. I would also request the states to use lockdowns as the last option,” Modi said.
By then, the virus was already raging across swathes of the country.
“We have to save the country from lockdowns. I would also request the states to use lockdowns as the last option,” Modi said.
By then, the virus was already raging across swathes of the country.
Then there's the U.K. variant, which was identified as fueling a massive surge in cases in Punjab by late March.
Punjab locked down, but others nearby didn't.
"It was a ticking time bomb," a scientist told us. "It was a matter of an explosion."
Weeks later, Delhi was swamped.
Punjab locked down, but others nearby didn't.
"It was a ticking time bomb," a scientist told us. "It was a matter of an explosion."
Weeks later, Delhi was swamped.
Three scientists told us that federal health authorities - and local Delhi officials - should have been better prepared after seeing what the variants had done in Maharashtra and Punjab.
“People listen to politicians more than scientists,” another said.
“People listen to politicians more than scientists,” another said.
Overall, many in India's scientific community are dejected.
“We could have done better, our science could have been given more significance,” Dr Rakesh Mishra of CCMB said.
“What we observed in whatever little way, that should have been used better.”
“We could have done better, our science could have been given more significance,” Dr Rakesh Mishra of CCMB said.
“What we observed in whatever little way, that should have been used better.”
Like so many others living through this crisis in India, I've been dismayed and disturbed by what's going on.
I hope our @ReutersIndia piece is able to answer some questions about how and why the second surge got so, so terrible. http://reut.rs/3nBOhrO
I hope our @ReutersIndia piece is able to answer some questions about how and why the second surge got so, so terrible. http://reut.rs/3nBOhrO
Before I close the thread, a word of appreciate for all those frontline warriors - doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers, cremation workers - who are still keeping a broken system running.
And to my colleagues, reporting from the ground.
Thank you. https://twitter.com/dansiddiqui/status/1387797324189945863
And to my colleagues, reporting from the ground.
Thank you. https://twitter.com/dansiddiqui/status/1387797324189945863
