Thinking about turnout, motivation to vote & constituency vote shares for the parties as we face final week of #SP21.

How likely are the 2016 supporters of each party to turnout?
Are the SNP in trouble if they can’t get their less enthusiastic voters to vote?
(1/17)

SavantaComRes 29 April 2021

0 = certain NOT to vote
10= CERTAIN to vote

Let’s start by focusing on the % certain to vote (10) and also the most most likely to vote (8,9,10) for each party.
(2/17)

SNP

Totally certain to vote: 79% (10)

Most most likely to vote all added together: 91% (8,9,10)
(3/17)

Scottish Labour

Totally certain: 84% (10)

Most most likely: 92% (8,9,10)
(4/17)

Scottish Conservatives

Totally certain: 84% (10)

Most most likely: 94% (8,9,10)
(5/17)

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Totally certain: 79% (10)

Most most likely: 86% (8,9,10)
(6/17)

Among those who are complete certainties to vote we see SNP & LDem numbers falling behind Lab and Con:

Among those absolute certainties to vote, SNP & LibDem (79% each) are behind Labour (92%) & Conservatives (94%)
(7/17)

But widening to the most most likely to vote (those who chose 8-10) we find LDem numbers falling behind & SNP very marginally behind Lab & Con:

LibDems have lowest likelihood to turnout with 86%. SNP at 91% are very marginally behind Lab 92% & Con 94%
(8/17)

But what if we broaden the range even further to include anyone choosing 6-10 we see this:
(9/17)

LibDem 92%, SNP 94%, Lab 95% and Con 96%

Again it’s the LibDem numbers falling behind the others among likely to vote.

But even adding everyone net likely (6-10) the SNP are still very marginally behind Labour & Conservatives. But there is not much in it.
(10/17)

Bottom line: if it’s a question of motivation to vote across the parties, those who voted LDem in 2016 are less motives than the others.

And those who voted SNP in 2016 are very marginally behind Lab and Con, but there isn’t much in it.
(11/17)

But how are those net motivated (6-10) voters actually planning to vote?

This is where things get more interesting(concerning) for the SNP...
(12/17)

All respondents likely to vote (6-10) constituency:

SNP 41% ()

(13/17)

This is well below the SNP’s constituency polling average of 46.7% as of 27th April
(14/17)

So: those who voted SNP in 2016 are very marginally behind those who voted Lab & Con in 2016 to turnout. But it’s extremely marginal difference.

BUT: among all those likely to vote, SNP constituency vote share is significantly BELOW their overall constituency polling ave
(15/17)

In fact the SNP’s constituency vote among likely to vote voters is 5.7% LESS than the their overall constituency polling average.

if SNP can’t motive their less likely to vote supporters, they could be in serious trouble in certain constituencies they currently hold
(16/17)

Source:

SavantaComRes April 29th 2021 poll tables:

…https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Final_38028217-Scotland-Poll-Scotsman-20210428_Private__.pdf

Courier poll tracker:
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2116855/scottish-election-2021-track-the-latest-polling-data/
(17/17)

Apologies for the spellchecker continually altering the word 'motivate' to motive in thread.