Julius Randle's case for Most Improved Player [THREAD]:

The Knicks were recently on an 9-game win streak and currently stand at 4th in the East. But how much of this success can actually be attributed to Julius Randle's improvement?
In this thread I will make a case for Julius Randle as the MIP this season.

There are obviously many factors that led to the Knicks winning games this season, but one of the reasons is their great 3P shooting (5th in 3P%)
Although no fans in the arenas leads to skewed shooting splits, Randle has clearly improved his shooting from last season:

2020 - 21.9 PTS/75 on -2.7% rTS, -0.6 ScoreVal
2021 - 24.1 PTS/75 on +0.2% rTS, 0.0 ScoreVal

He has improved in efficiency while maintaining similar volume. Let's look at his shooting improvement in more detail:

From 2020 --> 2021:

Midrange: 40% on 2.8 attempts --> 43% on 6.5 attempts
3P: 28% on 3.6 attempts --> 42% on 5.3 attempts
FT: 73% on 5.5 attempts --> 81% on 6.1 attempts

He has overwhelmingly improved in % on midrange shots, 3 point shots and free throws all on higher attempts.

But although Randle's general basketball IQ and decision making has improved (probably due to new coaching), his shot selection has gotten somewhat worse:

He also improved his % at the rim (0-3 feet) by 3% but he's taking more shots from 3-10 feet, the mid range and 3 point range. Only 17% of his shots come from 0-3 feet, which is actually his most efficient shot (1.32 PPS)
His PPS is:
- 0.82 on 3-10 ft
- 0.86 on MRA
- 1.25 on 3PA

Clearly Randle should be taking more shots inside the paint since he's a reliable finisher and a strong player who can bully himself into the paint easily if he wants to, but he rather relies on inefficient middies, often early in the clock leading to fastbreaks for the opponents

I calculated Randle's TS% if he'd take 7 shots at the rim, 2 from 3-10 feet, 4 from midrange and the same amount of 3PA and FTA per game.
His FG% would be 51% (currently 46%) and his TS% would be 61.5% TS (currently 57.3%).
He'd average 25.8 PPG (currently 24.1).

He would go from marginally above league efficiency to +4% rTS and would be tied for 5th most total points this season.
So clearly, Randle needs to get into the paint more and take more efficient shots at the rim, if he wants to improve his efficiency even more.

Randle has become a much more capable shot creator this season. Less of his shots have been assisted. He's added an array of moves to his arsenal that make his scoring game more resilient and consistent. He's added the step back to his game and is also taking more fade aways.

Another big improvement in Randle's game is his playmaking. In merely one season he's gone from a player with many playmaking woes to one of the best big man playmakers in the league. Randle has insane gravity and is pretty good at passing out of doubles.

He ranks 18th in mid range gravity league-wide.

His improved scoring has led to defenses paying him more attention and with the improved playmaking and also reducing/removing the tunnel vision he possessed last season, he has become a very capable playmaker.

(in the clips above you can see how as soon as Randle gets the ball, 2-4 players are instantly focused on Randle and leave their man open, in clip 2 Jeff Green instantly eases off Bullock, leaving him open)

His playmaking stats:

2020:
3.5 AST/75 | 3.6 Box Creation | 3.5 Passer Rating | 12% cTOV | -10% rLayup Ast% | -0.6 PlayVal

2021:
5.9 AST/75 | 8.6 Box Creation | 5.9 Passer Rating | 10% cTOV | -12% rLayup Ast% | 0.7 PlayVal

The stats clearly agree with the film here and indicate that Randle has had an insane jump in playmaking from 2020 to 2021, going from a bad playmaker to a good or even great playmaker.

Something to note though, is that his rLayup Ast% remains pretty low, but that's mostly due to him passing to shooters on the perimeter out of doubles in the midrange.

Additionally, Randle is a pretty capable playmaker in transition.

His improved scoring game, ability to create his own shot and good playmaking help keep the Knicks afloat offensively while he is on the court. He finds loads of shooters for 3 and I don't have the data now but I presume he'd be among the league leaders in secondary assists, too.

Now to his defense:
Randle is a fierce defender who can keep up with most players in the league when he's locked in. His help defense is pretty good too, but may be inflated by the system he plays in.
His defensive improvement from last season is insane.

He's got good awareness most of the time and often sees good opportunities to gamble for steals, which works well in Thibs' system. He has lapses in concentration at times, but I would say he's still a clear positive defender.

He can be lazy in low-leverage situations but in crunch time he has a great motor (on both ends) and is always a great defender.

Some defensive stats:

2020 - -0.3 DRAPTOR | -1.1 DBPM | 0.32 DLEBRON | 0.38 DRAPM

2020 - +1.8 DRAPTOR | +1.5 DBPM | 0.48 DLEBRON | 1.46 DRAPM

In conclusion, Julius Randle has heavily improved his shooting, scoring, shot creation, ball handling, playmaking, passing, man defense, team defense and basketball IQ.
Once he improves his shot selection he will be a perennial All-Star (hopefully with the Knicks lol)

So yeah, that's it for me presenting Julius Randle's case for MIP. It's honestly only between him and Shai (Shai's case is linked in the next tweet) and I think most people are leaning towards Randle, so this thread is kinda unnecessary but I just wanted to praise Ju a bit lol

I hope y'all enjoyed the thread if you did I'd appreciate a like and RT!

Who should I make a thread on next? https://twitter.com/MitchBlockParty/status/1381680022797217793?s=20