Since the Zarif tape has gone viral, many have referenced the existence of an Iranian deep state. In the hope of further debate, reposting this co-written paper @rassam_hossein that examines who & what is the Iranian deep state. Here below is the 12 pt twitter summary: 1/ https://twitter.com/SanamVakil/status/1315970691439759362

We argue the deep state is more than the IRGC. It is an intricate security, intelligence, and
economic superstructure whose goal is to preserve the fundamental revolutionary nature, vision, and security of the Islamic Republic of Iran 2/ https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/rassam_and_vakil_webready.pdf

The deep state includes Khamenei's Office; the intelligence & security services; the judiciary; religious bureaucracy; foundations; & quasi-private entities & subsidiaries like HEDI, Astane Qods IRGC Coop Found. This deep state network safeguards the IRI's security & stability 3/

The deep state has not just a monopoly of force but also a monopoly on wealth. Access to money and resources is critical for its patronage networks, employment, loyalty, and survivability—all defining features of Iran’s deep state. 4/

The story of the Iranian deep state is a cautionary tale of two competing states. The visible elected bodies have been struggling to contend with a deep state that is camouflaged within the unelected bodies of the state. 5/

Over time and under pressure, the visible elected bodies may collapse or become engulfed by the invisible, thereby changing the shape and composition of the Iranian political system. 6/

Ideologically, the deep state is most fearful of a transformation (estehaaleh) of the
IRI into a Soviet-style collapse. As domestic dissent has grown in the Islamic Republic, the deep state has drawn
from the experience of the Soviet model. 7/

The deep state is held together by Khamenei’s leadership which has continued to hold fast to religious ideology. After Khamenei’s demise, in order to adapt changing popular conditions &demographic realities, we expect the deep state will demonstrate ideological flexibility 8/

Because its network has been built over many decades, the deep state will most likely outlive Khamenei. How the deep state will evolve, though, particularly in the
aftermath of Khamenei’s death, remains a key question. 9/

Under the twin pressures of dissent & sanctions, the deep state has become more visible to the public eye. Key individuals and institutions have become
easier to identify. 10/

A challenge for negotiations has been confusion over the key individuals & decision makers. With a deep-state monopoly of power it might be easier to strike a deal. A consequence would be a deep state consolidation of power & marginalization of reformist stakeholders. 11/

Lastly, important to note is the deep state is not opposed to engagement and diplomacy as long as its interests are protected. Policymakers should focus on transactionalism in their approach to Iran. End/