So China launched something, its stuck in orbit but decaying, orbiting the earth every 90 minutes, and will descend at [we have no idea] and hit [something between New York and New Zealand]. https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch/

Good luck to everyone playing in this inverse lottery. Which is almost all of us. Hope you don't win.

> "Since 1990 nothing over 10 tons has been deliberately left in orbit to reenter uncontrolled." The Long March 5B core stage, without its four side boosters, is thought to have a "dry mass", or when it is empty of propellent, of about 21 metric tons in mass.

> McDowell said he hoped China would have enhanced the core stage to perform a controlled deorbit after separating from Tianhe. "I think by current standards it’s unacceptable to let it reenter uncontrolled," McDowell said.

it's April but this might be understatement of the year

fellas is it distasteful and unsatisfactory to let 21 tons of debris fall from space onto... *gesture to the globe*?

I regret to inform you that the Philippines are north of New Zealand and south of New York. But you have a few days to get off the island and push it out of the danger zone, illustrated here.

https://twitter.com/Time2Mourn/status/1388161729830424578

The article mentions a reasonable rule-of-thumb is about 20-40% of the original dry mass. But things that fall from space are usually much smaller, so. https://twitter.com/NedumgottMoney/status/1388164849125974018