(1/11) Update on the situation with SARS-CoV2 variants of concern in Belgium based on today's @sciensano report & baseline surveillance sequencing data from @Emmanuel_microb's federal test platform. Brazilian variant now reached 10% of all new infections.

(2/11) A multinomial fit to these data shows that while the South African variant is outcompeted, the Brazilian variant has a small but significant growth advantage over the UK variant ( of 2% per day, p=0.0003).

(3/11) Here multinomial fit shown with confidence intervals (on a linear & a logit scale).

(4/11) If this multinomial fit is mapped onto new case data as reported by @sciensano we get this figure. Wild type, UK variant and South African variant declining, but not 100% sure about the Brazilian variant.

(5/11) You can judge for yourself - here, in a figure also showing the confidence intervals. Brazilian variant is declining, but only barely, and it cannot be excluded it's currently actually increasing in absolute terms.

(6/11) The more worrying new SARS-CoV2 variant now is the Indian one B.1.617+. Based on the Indian GISAID sequencing data, that variant rapidly outcompetes the British variant B.1.1.7, perhaps due to a transmission and/or immune escape advantage.

(7/11) A multinomial fit shows growth advantage of Indian variant relative to UK variant is similar to that of the UK variant relative to the wild type in other countries. So sort of like the UK variant squared. Epidemic waves also coincide with B.1.617 becoming dominant.

(8/11) Also rapid increase in cases seen in other countries, e.g. here in the Sanger Institute UK data, which filter out some of the cases directly linked with travel (fab dashboard by @theosanderson). https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineage=B.1.617&lambda_type=area&date=2021-04-10&show=B.1.351%2CB.1.525%2CB.1.617%2CP.1%2Cother

(9/11) Best to still try to keep that one out for a while. Solution: vaccinate at max speed, and go and get your vaccine shot if you get your invitation. That will be the best protection against any such new variants, especially the chance to get severy ill. And still be careful.

(10/11) Keeping it out won't be easy. In BE, we just had 20/43 Indian students arriving with a B.1.617.2 infection, after a neg PCR test prior to departure and another neg Ag test in Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris. 8 out of 20 were vaccinated. https://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20210425_97778773

(11/11) In Israel, the Indian variant B.1.617 is already locally circulating among school kids without any travel history. So do stay careful until the summer, when most of us will be vaccinated. https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1387911146695544841