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#FrenchFriday A thread on France this morning: The polls are tightening in advance of the possible Macron - Le Pen duel in 2022. Will a majority of voters still rally to oppose the far right at all costs? Or are we seeing real cracks in the anti-Rassemblement National (RN) dam?1/
The first warning sign was the March 2021 Ifop/Marianne poll showing 53% for Macron, 47% for Le Pen (down from 66%-33% in 2017 2nd round). It means more voters are actually ready to vote Le Pen(MLP) & more voters are willing to abstain, which favors MLP 2/ https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/118003-Rapport-Marianne-15.03.2021-1.pdf
Subsequently, a lot has been made of the “abstentionist left” that would bail on Macron in the 2nd round. But the abstentionist phenomenon is as pronounced on the right as on the left. A majority of center-left voters are still voting for @EmmanuelMacron over @MLP_officiel. 3/
A second interesting study was published by the Fondation Jean-Jaurès @j_jaures. It evaluates the risks of seeing Le Pen elected in the 2nd round by beating Macron, after assessing the weakening of the "anti-RN dam". @A_Bristielle @TristanGuerra_ 4/ https://jean-jaures.org/nos-productions/2022-evaluation-du-risque-le-pen
Even if MLP jumps in the polls, reaching 50% is a far reach. The report identifies 3 paths to victory for MLP, probably none of which is sufficient alone: 1- “attract the Right” = with ideological rapprochement. Works especially well on cultural issues (religion, authority) 5/
2- “de-demonization” = continue gaining respectability in the eyes of the voters. Le Pen has worked hard to this, and it has paid off. Main change is that the proportion of voters who hold a “very bad opinion” of Le Pen has dropped from 50% two years ago to 34% today. 6/
3- “reject Macron” = when disgusted voters refuse to choose Macron over MLP. During his mandate, from the “president of the rich” to the “Gilets Jaunes” to the COVID crisis, Macron has fueled negative emotions among erstwhile supporters that may lead to significant abstention. 7/
The report shows that even if Macron benefits from quite high approval ratings, the four top emotions he triggers are negative: from « anger » (28 %), « despair » (21 %), « disgust » (21 %) and « shame » (21 %) 8/
Even more worrying: among the traditional right Le Pen triggers more positive emotions than Macron does. Even though all too often leftist voters are blamed for their supposed anti-Macron views, they hold much better views of Macron than MLP, unlike voters on the right 9/
If not Macron, then who? A 3rd viable competitor is emerging: Xavier Bertrand. President of the Hauts-de-France region, Bertrand is a traditional right candidate who polls favorably in a 2nd round against Le Pen (61% to 39%), more so than Macron. 10/ https://jean-jaures.org/nos-productions/la-situation-politique-a-un-an-de-la-presidentielle
As @finchelstein shows, Bertrand appears to the public “presidential” while he “understands people like us.” But he has yet to accumulate enough support to propel him, and faces a challenge: getting himself reelected in June regional elections. 11/ https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2021/04/19/hauts-de-france-la-gauche-et-le-rn-veulent-leur-revanche_6077316_823448.html
So, with the French presidential election still a long year away, Macron remains in a strong position in 1st round and a weak one in 2nd round. Which is why so far his path to reelection is more straightforward than anybody else’s. Including MLP. But a lot more to happen. 12/12
