COVID-19 Nepal Situation Analysis (Thread)
Most common question is- where we headed to?
With Test Positivity above 30% ( 7 days avg) and Reproduction rate above 2, and very weak control measures, the situation looks very scary. I am trying to explore the situation below(1)

Reproduction rate: it measures the transmission potential of a disease, shows how many secondary infections would be produced by one infection. Currently Nepal sits way above with 2.08 (updated April 27), almost double the Global Average and 50% above India's current rate. (2)

We are seeing many Projections, many talks about IHME's number, I have referenced more than 20 of them and my personal fav is this model, which shows by May end the current total of 323187 would easily be doubled. We are hitting the high projection range, this is worrisome (3)

So we are looking around 12-15K new cases in daily basis, but do we have enough testing capacity? With limited testing there's another 6 undetected cases for every 1 detected case, and even with expansion of testing we always will have 1-2 undetected for every 1 detected (4)

Yes the situation is dreadful. Final appeal: these are projection based on current situation, things might get better or worse, and it won't end like I projected, please do not attack me later, one reason i try to avoid projection /predictions in public space.