$twtr obviously going to be bad today & as part of that im going to take big losses but now sentiment in mid 50s is extremely negative so thought id post thoughts:
Q420: $twtr guided to 940M to 1.04B in rev & analyst day said 20% user growth hit 1.04B this q & 20% user growth

Guidance for q2 is wife at 980M to 1.08B (1.06B est) but said jan & feb started slow with brand advertising (large companies) due to riots, inauguration & some events pushed out but that March had strong momentum, said if march trajectory continues then would b high end of range

Important to know currently 85% $twtr rev is brand advertising & 15% direct response. $fb for example is opposite & thats the oppty in $twtr as they said @ analyst day goal is to get to 50/50 for DR/brand. Its been one q & expectations after analyst day just got too high

Goal of doubling revs by 2023 and 20% user growth per year remains unchanged & on call said priority is releasing subscription & new products imminently (though small and betas at first). Selling here in front of that & with q2 as the peak tough comp q to me makes no sense

Valuation: $twtr is cash printing machine. Of their 1.04B revs this q they had 390M cash from operations. 290M ebitda (28% margin vs $pins 17%) & 210M in free cash flow (20%). Selling a biz with these metrics BEFORE they release/ramp new products & accelerate makes no sense to me

Clearly this will take longer to play out & anyone with calls is going to get hit hard like me but longer term this is still 2-3x by end of 2023 if they do what they say theyll do & with cash flow metrics is extremely attractive at this valuation imo

Its paid to buy last 3 or 4 dips on $twtr every time they missed as its bounced & gone higher & with toughest compare already this q & expectations now reset next q to me its a buying oppty esp w/ momentum traders gone, & rsi looking close to washed out with stock at 56.xx