Some thoughts on the consequences of a Conservative victory in the #HartlepoolByElection, and what it might mean for the next election and the Union.

If (if) the Conservatives win in Hartlepool, it will be big news, and plenty of analysis will be published about what defeat means for Labour and Starmer. What might get less attention is the conclusions that the Conservatives might draw from their victory.

The Con Party has deftly positioned itself as an English party since 2015, where it made an explicit play for voters who primarily identify as being English. Shld they win in Hartlepool, they may conclude that it was because they were able to effectively appeal those voters.

There is clearly a battle to be fought in Hartlepool for the votes of English identifiers...

Lab’s St. George’s Day leaflet shows that they recognize this. https://twitter.com/PaulWilliamsLAB/status/1385510438130049024?s=20

However, it would appear that this is a battle Lab are destined to lose, in part because they were on the wrong side on one of the most important issues for voters who primarily identify as English, namely Brexit.

So, victory in Hartlepool could provide definitive confirmation for the Conservatives of their appeal to English identifiers, & Lab’s ongoing weakness in relation to those same voters. But what might this mean for the future Conservative strategy?

With regards to the next GE, it will likely mean that the Cons aim to build a coalition of Eng identifiers & leave voters. There is plenty of overlap between those categories in Eng, although in Wal & Sco, it appears that leave voters primarily identify as British.

With that in mind the Conservatives will likely continue to promote a form of Anglo-centric British nationalism for the remainder of this Parl. as they prepare the ground for activating voters within this coalition (so Union flags behind Ministers are here to stay).

However, for this approach to definitely work, the Conservatives also need an “other” to position themselves against at the next GE, and this is where the question of the Union comes in.

To really activate voters who primarily identify as English, the Conservatives will aim to create the perceived threat of England being ruled by an outside power, just as they did in 2015 (Alex Salmond/Scotland) & 2019 (the EU via the Trojan horse of remainers).

With Brexit “done”, the Conservatives will aim to make sure that it is the Scottish bogeyman that it positions itself against at the next GE.

This means that govt. will not budge on the q. of #IndyRef2 no matter how big a mandate the SNP (or other pro-indy parties) win next Thurs. Why? Because they will want to hang SNP agitation for IndyRef2 around Lab’s neck at the GE &...

...create the belief amongst English identifiers that voting Lab will give “separatist” Sturgeon/Scotland a whip hand in Westminster.

So the next election could echo 2015, with plenty of talk by the Conservatives of Labour being propped up by the SNP, in an attempt to trigger voters who primarily identify as English, particularly in traditional Labour seats.

This messaging will only be amplified if the GE takes place during a downturn, as the Conservatives will want to shift attention away from economic matters (a weakness), and towards matters of identity (a strength).

The irony, of course, will be that in taking this approach the party that has “unionist” in its title, & a leader who appointed himself Minister for the Union, will further weaken the bonds between the four nations (or at least Eng & Sco), in its pursuit of power in Westminster.