It's now 18 days since *non-essential* retail, gyms, hairdressers & outdoor pubs/cafes/restaurants opened in step 2 of the roadmap in England. So plenty of time to see any effect on infections.

What is the data showing so far?

Positive tests are a bit messed up by re-starting of mass school testing. So here are positives by specimen date for non-school ages using centred 7-day ave. Red line indicates when we might see an effect, allowing for infection-test lag.

No sign of any increase so far.

To back this up, the PCR positive test rate has decreased to just 0.8%, the same level as at the lowest point last summer.

What about Zoe App estimates of symptomatic cases? Data now up to 26 April (centred 7-day average to 23rd) – enough time for at least 2 rounds of infection.

Estimates still decreasing & currently way below the lowest point of last summer.

And the ONS Infection Survey which includes asymptomatic cases?

Official incidence estimates for 11-17 April are about half the estimates for the previous week. Early days but good news so far.

Taken together, clear that infections have not increased (& probably continued to decrease after shops/gyms/outdoor pubs reopened.

We already know that neither school re-opening nor outdoor sport/meetups led to increased community transmission/hospitalisations/deaths.

So none of the re-opening steps on the roadmap have led to any significant increase in community transmission or hospitalisations.

Indeed, test positivity & symptomatic infection estimates are as low or lower than the lowest point last summer …

… so why still 2.5 weeks before cafes & pubs can reopen indoors?

& 2.5 more weeks when inviting even 1 friend into your house for a cup will be a crime?

& 7.5 weeks before most other restrictions are removed?

& no date at all for an end to the ineffective mask laws?

The glacial pace of re-opening is causing real damage to jobs, to businesses, to public finances and to general well being, yet with no evidence of any benefit.

The Government has the data. There is no excuse now not to look again & to speed up the timetable.