Current odds on a Conservative win in Hartlepool. If (if) the Conservatives win it will be big news. I wonder what lessons the Conservatives might learn from victory though. https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1387472151343677449

Perhaps they will conclude that they won because they are able to effectively appeal to voters who primarily identify as English.

The Conservatives have definitively positioned themselves as England’s party since 2015, and they could see will see a Hartlepool win as further evidence that appealing to English identifiers helps win seats in Parliament.

The leaflet Labour recently used in Hartlepool shows that they recognises that there is a battle to be fought for the votes of English identifiers. https://twitter.com/PaulWilliamsLAB/status/1385510438130049024?s=20

However, it would appear that this is a battle Labour are destined to lose, in part because on one of the most important issue for English identifiers (Brexit), Labour voted "against England" by supporting Remain.

So, the coalition the Conservatives may well aim to build at the next GE will be of English identifying leave voters, alongside British identifying leave voters elsewhere in the UK.

With this in mind, the Conservatives will likely to continue to promote a form of Anglo-centric British nationalism for the remainder of this Parliament in preparation for that election.

However, for this approach to definitely work at the ballot box, the Conservatives also need an “other” to position themselves against.

To really activate voters who primarily identify as English, the Conservative need to create the perceived threat of England being ruled by an outside power, as they did in 2015 (Scotland and Salmond) and 2019 (the EU through the Trojan horse of remainers).

With Brexit "done", the Conservatives will need to make sure that it is the Scottish bogeyman that it positions itself against at the next GE.

This means that the Conservatives will not budge on the q. of a indy ref 2, because they will want to hang SNP agitation for a vote around Lab’s neck & create the belief amongst English identifiers that voting for Lab will give Sturgeon/the Scottish a whip hand in Westminster.