1- Yesterday, Biden said "American leadership means ending the forever war*" in Afghanistan. It is almost exactly 20 years after the US invaded, in Sept. 2001. The US leaves defeated, as there is nothing that it has done that is not quickly undoable. Some thoughts on Afghanistan:

2- Pakistan has emerged winner, in that it is still deeply involved in Afghanistan & powerfully disruptive of stability there. It determined to bring that country under its heel, in the next phase with support from China, which will extract its pound of Afghan natural resources.

3- Pakistan will be supported by Turkey in this endeavour, although Ankara too will extract its pound of flesh, by deepening & widening its sway over the Pakistani military itself, leveraging the greed and "Erturgul" style ambitions & identity dilemma of the Pakistani leadership.

4- China is never going to be as indulgent of the Pakistani military establishment as its previous patrons (the Americans) were. It will be pragmatic, blunt, the quid pro quos will be clearly measurable, and there will be no room for religious pleading on the Pakistani side.

5- So the Sino-Pak relationship will be much more "master-slave" than "principal-agent" - a reality that will have its impact, as time goes by, on Pakistani society as a whole. Turkey will provide the empathy, in return for an open nuclear backdoor, but Ankara is fragile too.

6- What about Russia? We may anticipate an era of pure realpolitik from Moscow. It will not angle for control over Afghanistan, nor will it allow any single power to have control over the country. It has, therefore, good working relationships with all of Afghanistan's neighbours.

7- America may have ended its physical military presence (for the most part), but it too will play pure realpolitik there - but that will be oriented against the Sino-Pak game plan for the country. We may expect, counter-intuitively, that the US will be a much more disruptive

8- force in Afghanistan going forward, but mainly in the aerial realm, and in the unseen one of advisors and private operators. In this effort, it will both co-operate and confront in a way that only America can, with its wealth, reach & military assets. Vengeance will happen.

9- India, with its emotional ties to Afghanistan, will persist in what it is doing, but it will face a renewed aggressive push by Sino-Pak combo to reverse gains - infrastructure & hearts-and-minds. We can anticipate a lower intensity of public engagement, and investment as well

10- as extensive co-operation with the US & Russia, in particular. There will also be co-operation with the Afghan Government for as long as it lasts & is able to provide any form of central authority. Only time will tell, but we can be certain Pakistan is moving to shorten it...

11- What does all this mean? It means, more of the same, not dissimilar from the situation pre-2001. It means no interested country will countenance stability in Afghanistan, if that is not on acceptable terms - and each of these countries has the capability to undermine

12- everyone else. Ironically, Pakistan is the country with the most motivation now to impose stability in Afghanistan, but explicitly on its terms. Note: Durand Line. Those terms will be challenged relentlessly & in ways where the vectors of violence are wholly unpredictable.

13- The Afghans, ever resistant to foreign influence but not rule & ever ready to be hired but not purchased, will fight all comers. Expect new groups to be formed, new "leaders" to emerge, with suitable "legendary" backstories to match whatever they get up to

14- The endgame of this bizarre geo-political death-dance? In truth, no one really knows. America's "forever war" ended yesterday.

Afghanistan's forever war will continue.

END