Coming up: A thread to understand India's vaccine numbers... or why there aren't enough vaccines going around.

First let's start with those over 45 and above. The number of people aged 45 or above are estimated to be around 35.6 crore.
Until today, officially only people in this age group are being vaccinated.

Of this lot, as I write this, 12.4 crore have taken the first dose. And 2.6 crore have taken both the doses.
So, 20.6 crore (35.6 crore minus 12.4 crore minus 2.6 crore) haven't taken any dose.
And around 9.8 crore haven't taken the second dose (12.4 crore minus 2.6 crore).

So how many vaccines are required for this age bracket?
For people who haven't taken any dose, the number of vaccines required is, 20.6 crore x 2 = 41.2 crore.
Then there are 9.8 crore who need the second dose.
Hence, the number of vaccine still required is 51 crore (41.2 + 9,8).

Now let's consider those between 18-45. I have data for 20-45, and their number amounts to 55 crore. For 18-45 let's assume, 60 crore.
The number of vaccines required to vaccinate this lot is 120 crore (60 x 2).

The total number of vaccines required to vaccinate all of India, over the age of 18, is 171 crore (120 crore + 51 crore).
Now the question is what is the supply.

In May, Serum Institute (Covishield) is expected to produce 7 crore vaccines. Bharat Biotech is expected to produce 2 crore.
That's 9 crore vaccines, when 171 crore are required.

Serum Institute's capacity is expected to go up to 10 crore vaccines by June and Bharat Biotech's capacity is expected to go up to 6 crore by July.
By July we will have 16 crore vaccines being produced per month.

Of course, others like Sputnik and Pfizer will also come in, and thus the supply will increase and go up to more than 16 crore.

The point is that the supply of vaccines will continue to be a problem for the next few months.
There are only two companies and there is only so much they can make.

What does this tell us?
It tells us that the authorities did not see the second wave coming and hence, had no plans to vaccinate a large section of the population quickly. They were sleeping at the wheels.

Also, even with the availability of 20 crore vaccines a month, it will take at least five to six months, for a significant portion of the population to be vaccinated.

This easily explains why most state govts have run out of stocks.
There is no supply. This is a problem that is not going to go away at least for the next two months.

Of course, what will also happen now is that there will be a great fight for access to vaccines, not just between state governments, but also between state govts and the private sector.

I have already stories of corporates throwing money to ensure that their employees are vaccinated and can get back to work quickly.
For them, it is the cost of doing business, which can be passed on to their consumers.

Basically, it's a royal screwup, which cannot be corrected quickly.

Give it another five to six months and hope for the best.

For the population projection, this was my source of data:
http://www.mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Youth_in_India-2017.pdf

There's a small mistake in the calculation. The number of 45 year olds who will need a second dose is 12.4 crore and not 9.8 crore as mentioned.
Hence, the total vaccines required for 45 year olds is 41.2 crore + 12.4 crore, which equals, 53.6 crore and not 51 crore as calculated

This means that the total number of vaccines required is 120 crore (for people between 18-45) + 53.6 crore (for people of 45 and above), which equals to 173.6 crore.
Over and above this, there will be wastage, so we are clearly looking at a requirement upwards of 180 crore.

Vaccine Demand-Supply Math Shows a Govt Screwup.

Total demand is likely to be in the range of 178-190 cr vaccines. The supply in May will be around 9 cr vaccines. Will go up to 16 crore in July.

It will take at least 5-6 months for things to stabilse. https://vivekkaul.com/2021/04/30/indias-vaccine-demand-supply-math-shows-a-royal-govt-screwup/

I have basically put out all the points in the thread at one place.
Have also corrected for a silly mistake I had made, which I have corrected in the thread as well.
Please share this with as many people as possible. People need to understand that they need to keep wearing masks.

If any publication wants to publish this, just get in touch on this thread.
This needs to reach as many people as possible.
Thanks.