THREAD: I had an extensive conversation with my international law professor about #NUGRegonition today. Odds are against us, but what are our options ? Just posting some notes for those interested.

#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar
#April30Coup #MilkTeaAlliance
#recognizeNUG

Generally, govs get recognized if they have effective control over territory, security, and governmental apparatus. Intl community is hesitent to recognize entities that don’t have effective control becoz simply you can’t be taken accountable for a territory you can’t control.

But sometimes, it can be a political choice by states in international community to recognize an entity as legitimate government of a country even if the said entity doesn’t have effective control (recent example being Venezuela).

Recognition of Guaidó gov came first from Trump administration and considered a high-risk bet at the time. And the events that followed afterwards weren’t too favorable. So, the question is, would it have happened under a different administration? Would Biden recognize NUG?

Theoretically, it is possible that NUG can get officially recognized. But currently, the argument to make for NUGRecognition is quite weak because NUG itself is still feeble. 1) They have no control over territory and their leaders are in hiding,

2)they have not proven that they have taken over government bureaucracy, 3) their capacity to build federal ethnic coalition is yet to be observed. But it will be a shift in power if they can give CDM participants salaries and perform some sizable government functions from exile

Yet, on the other hand, the junta has no ground whatsoever for de jure recognition. So, it’s likely that intl community can remain neutral forever and not recognize either entity. In this case, we can push for further isolation of the junta and advocate for NUG with following:

1) the junta has no effective control over government apparatus (due to the strength of CDM) (really important), 2) they came into power through extraconstitutional, illegal means, 3) they are weakening in the fight with EAOs as ethnic resistance also gains momentum,

4) even their own soldiers are defecting and violations of human rights within the military institution, 5) crimes against humanity and grave violations of human rights, (stressed also that they are a different regime in nature than other authoritarian regimes in the region)

Feel free to discuss, dispute, add on, etc.