OPINION: Is Gregg Berhalter the man for the USMNT?

I don't make it a secret that I don't rate Gregg Berhalter as USMNT manager. This thread will try to explain my reasoning in generalized arguments as well as my expectations for him going forward

For one, we should not mince words here: Berhalter won zero trophies during his 5 seasons with the Crew. This doesn't mean he's a bad coach (and there are many world class managers who win few trophies) but in MLS compared to his colleagues, Berhalter underperforms

Win-rate % of MLS American managers
Source: wikipedia/mlssoccer

Kreis: 38.40% (2007-21)
[Berhalter: 38.73% (2013-19)]
Curtin: 41.40% (2014-21)
Vermes: 42.02% (2009-21)
Porter: 42.11% (2013-21)
Pareja: 44.31% (2012-21)
Vanney: 45.24% (2014-21)
Schmetzer: 49.66% (2016-21)

Goal differential (same list)

[Berhalter: +6 GD (2013-19)]
Curtin: +34 GD (2014-21)
Kreis: +36 GD (2007-21)
Pareja: +59 GD (2012-21)
Porter: +72 GD (2013-21)
Vanney: +80 GD (2014-21)
Vermes: +109 GD (2009-21)
Schmetzer: +162 GD (2016-21)

Berhalter is far below everyone in GD

I point out the win-rate % and GD to show why it was pretty ridiculous that Berhalter was the favorite for the USMNT job back when US Soccer took a year to hire. In fact, it was constantly reported that he was the favorite despite int. managers being interested.

Berhalter had a far weaker resume than a lot of experienced American managers or colleagues who managed similar small market MLS teams. It was also suspicious that the US Soccer media tried very hard to sell us on Berhalter's managerial experience for the USMNT job.

GD, trophies and win-rate % are generalized stats but it gives you a pretty good idea of how a manager performs at a club across time. And bc MLS is a soft league with no pro/rel, there's really no excuse to not win something in MLS if you're a good manager.

But then someone would argue that Berhalter has done a good job with the national team so far. And I would argue that it hasn't necessarily been the case at all in terms of results and team performances in important games.

When Berhalter was hired back in 2019, the bar was low for the USMNT. We did not participate in the 2018 WC and we had to go through a painful process of replacing washed up vets like Bradley, Altidore, Gonzalez and the vets who were squad players and in MLS

And yet despite that low bar, 2019 was a disaster for the USMNT. It was the 1st time in the USMNT modern era that we lost back to back to MEX by a combined 0-4 scoreline and an unprecedented 0-2 loss to CAN who only really have Davies and David as respectable players.

The USMNT also lost to VEN and JAM in friendlies and in all those losses, the USMNT looked absolutely clueless when playing from the back. Sure, Berhalter won the home game against CAN, 4-1 but he had the team play counterattacking football and dropped his system for that game.

This is another thing that I should mention: Berhalter was rated by his backers for supposedly having a good attacking tactical system. In those 2019 games, it was argued that he needed more time because the team was creating chances and they were unlucky.

But its also just as true that the USMNT conceded too many ridiculous goals. Berhalter made many of his Camp Cupcake 2019 players into USMNT mainstays and many of his guys failed the mark. Trapp, Roldan, Arriola, Lovitz are examples of players who Berhalter inexplicably favored.

In many of those games his teams often could not press properly and did not defend well in the midfield. This is despite having had his MLS guys in multiple camps that year for continuity. Yes he canned Trapp and Lovitz but Berhalter also stuck with these guys for too long.

Let's review the GC final loss to MEX. Both teams fielded what were arguably B teams at the time. The USMNT were missing Adams, Brooks and MEX were missing Herrera and Lozano. Dest, Reyna had not debuted for us at the time and Sargent was barely debuting for W. Bremen.

The USMNT played decently in the 1st half with some chances created but in reality, MEX controlled the game and imposed themselves. They pressed our midfield well and Berhalter had no answer to stopping their press. The backline also couldn't play out the back too well.

Cannon had a decent defensive game when up against Pizzaro but then Tata outcoached Berhalter and switched Pizzaro's flank. MEX got their deserved goal and probably should've had a few more while the USMNT were lucky to not be down by 2.

Berhalter also made a ridiculous choice to sub in Lovitz who offered little offensively to push MEX for a goal. Pulisic played in a deeper position and it was clear that he wasn't at his best there. All in all it was a disappointing managerial performance from Berhalter.

The following friendly against MEX was an even worse performance by Berhalter. This time, Zimmerman partnered with Long for what was a terrible CB pairing. This was despite Dest playing at LB (a huge improvement over Ream from the GC final).

The CBs made repeated error after error when MEX incorporated a high press to snuff out what they felt was a weak midfield anchored by Trapp. Morales didn't have the best game either but much of his work went into covering for Trapp's defensive frailties.

Yes, Sargent missed a penalty that game as well but he was also playing far too deep as a forward. Pulisic had no support and was kept quiet once again. All in all, it was the wrong system, wrong set of players and wrong tactics by Berhalter against MEX again.

But the lowest game by far in Berhalter's tenure has to be the away loss to CAN. W/o disrespecting CAN too much, they are not a good team even today, they're consistently rated in the 70s by the FIFA and Elo rankings. We have never lost to CAN in over 3 decades (since 1985).

In that loss, Berhalter once again made the ridiculous choice of starting Daniel Lovitz at LB. Bradley and Roldan also started as the midfielders and they were quickly exposed by CAN. Lovitz was repeatedly targeted and neutralized quickly. The Bradley/Roldan duo offered

absolutely zero creativity and did little to help defensively. The USMNT tried to build from the back and CAN were easily able to disrupt any buildup. Once again, Berhalter's usual go-to guys failed the mark and against CAN of all teams. Davies had a field day on the left.

Yedlin and Morris offered little to no help in the build up. The backline was making errors (notice how Long is a constant in these build up errors too). To make that night even more pathetic, Berhalter made the choice to sub out Pulisic for Arriola. Terrible management.

2020 was a better year for the USMNT and Berhalter but then again, there were hardly any games due to the pandemic and US Soccer being unable to schedule games. The Wales game (a Wales B team) was a highlight due to the talent we fielded that game.

For the first time, the USMNT fielded a starting XI of talented players plying their trade at Barcelona, Juventus, Dortmund, Man City and upcomers like Leipzig. We've also managed to get former England u20 player Yunus Musah of Valencia to play for us.

The game itself was probably the best game from Berhalter so far. The USMNT, w/ just a few days of training, utilized a strong press that suffocated the Welsh and kept them quiet. Yunus, Musah and Adams showed the collective midfield quality we were desperately missing.

However, there were still some flaws. Berhalter decided to start Lletget at a false 9 position which clearly did not work. Lletget is quite frankly poor on the attacking department unless he plays off others and the USMNT attack didn't produce much w/o a striker.

It also has to be said that Lletget quite frankly shouldn't have been called up. He's a luxury player with some technical skills but does not affect the game going forward and is definitely not a false 9. He connects passes to others but he's not a player to rely on to attack.

Ignoring the arguably pointless recent Camp Cupcake games of late 2020 early 2021, the last and most recent noteworthy friendly (that's not against Concacaf opposition) came against N. Ireland last month.

This time around, Pulisic was able to attend but we were without notable players like Richards, Sargent, Adams. This game was also the debut of Aaronson. Overall, it was a good lineup with only two players who should not have been there (Long, Acosta).

The game was an overall decent performance once again by the USMNT A team. Berhalter switched to a back 3 to take advantage of A. Robinson and Dest who play as wingbacks with great success at Fulham and Barcelona this season. Multiple players had good debuts as well.

N. Ireland sat back, absorbed pressure and the USMNT sought to break them down. Robinson and Dest did decently. Siebatcheu showed his technical qualities and Pulisic dominated the game with a MOTM performance. But once again there were issues with the performance.

The back 3 CB was clearly missing Brooks since Miazga did not look comfortable and Long was arguably the worst of the CBs due to his bad distribution. Ream was consistent with his passing but none of the CBs had a particularly good game. When Richards subbed on, the CBs were

more active in being able to make forward passes. Acosta (a player that should not be in the A squad) started and showed his limitations. The N. Irish pressed and forced him to make errors that would be punished by better teams like MEX. We were clearly missing Adams' presence.

Aaronson, De La Torre and Reynolds were good depth callups by Berhalter to give him credit. The former of the two imposed themselves well in the game and the latter of the three showed well despite not having trained much at Roma due to his recent arrival.

Berhalter has gotten better at squad choices but keep in mind that the squad practically picks itself now that we have many Americans breaking records in top leagues and good development clubs in Europe. Should he get credit for picking players that should be playing?

Recall that I talked about Berhalter being a success for the USMNT and I argued otherwise. When you look at the last 3 USMNT managers and how they performed, it doesn't necessarily show that Berhalter is the best of the lot.

Here are the match stats of Arena, Sarachan and Berhalter

Arena: 18 matches, 10 W, 6 D, 2 L, PPM 2.00
Sarachan: 12 matches, 3 W, 4 D, 5 L, PPM (points per match) 1.08
Berhalter: 25 matches, 17 W, 3 D, 5 L, PPM 2.16

Berhalter looks good on the surface but this needs context.

It looks like Sarachan was by a distance the worst of the bunch but you also must look at the opposition he faced against at the time. US Soccer scheduled what had to be the most stacked opposition in USMNT history for the sake of marketing. BRA, ENG, ITA, COL, MEX, FRA, POR.

No USMNT manager in history will come away with a positive record against all of those historically tough opposition in one year, with a squad in transition. Sure, Sarachan isn't a good tactical manager but given the circumstances, he did fine as a caretaker.

The high points of his tenure include drawing to POR and FRA away with the POR game being a good performance and the FRA game being a very fortunate draw. He faced 10 good teams and came away with a GD of -4 (GF 11, GA 15). It could've been worse in retrospect so credit to him.

Arena's second stint wasn't completely terrible on the surface either. He won a Gold Cup with a terrible squad of MLSers. He didn't play against too many good sides but against the relatively good teams he face, he came away w/ a GD of +3.

Still, the football was terrible. Arena failed completely when setting his teams up to earn points in away Hex games. He was fortunate many times to be saved by individual brilliance and everything unraveled after the GC with a home loss to CRC and the infamous night at Couva.

How does Berhalter compare? If you look at his high win rate of 68% and GD of +46, things look good but keep in mind the level opposition. For one, he hasn't faced many strong opponents in his tenure so far.

If you look at the rankings of the big teams these three USMNT managers faced, you see a different picture.

Average rank of Arena opposition: 39
Average rank of Sarachan opposition: 14
Average rank of Berhalter opposition: 31

Yes, Fifa rankings are bad but it gives context.

The rankings aren't perfect but they more or less show that Sarachan had the most brutal tenure and Berhalter hasn't really faced that many good teams. Also keep in mind that WAL and NIR fielded B teams due to qualifiers and those South American friendlies were all at home.

The draws to Chile and Uruguay were fairly decent friendlies for Berhalter but it's hard to read much into those games considering that the South American teams sent B teams and Chile is on the decline. The USMNT also did not produce high quality chances in either of those games.

The one positive during Berhalter's tenure has been dual-nat recruitment. The USMNT have been able to secure Sergino Dest from the Dutch, Yunus Musah from England and gotten the attention of other dual-nats like Siebatcheu. But as always, this requires more context.

An often ignored and unrecognized figure in the USMNT setup is GM and former USMNT legend Brian McBride. It's not a coincidence that the USMNT stepped up their dual-nat recruitment when McBride became GM last year and it baffles me that Berhalter gets credit for McBride's work.

US Soccer and McBride clearly describe the current GM position as someone involved in the backroom and someone who explicitly handles dual-nats. So really, Berhalter shouldn't necessarily be credited for Dest and Musah although he does play them often as starters, credit to him.

This isn't meant to diminish Berhalter's dual-nat role but to me it's obvious that recruitment is now a team effort rather than a manager calling up every foreign born kid w/ a parent that has a U.S passport. For example, it was Nico Estevez who tipped Berhalter to Musah.

What should the expectations be for Berhalter this summer and beyond? For one, he must win a trophy and Nations League must be the priority. He has zero excuses now that the USMNT have one of the most stacked squads in Concacaf history. The standards must be higher for him.

I'm not asking him to win a world cup - we aren't anywhere close right now. But dominating Concacaf with the level of players we have in Europe, even against Mexico should not be seen as an impossible task and he must be held accountable if performances lag behind.

Why did I make a painstaking effort to contextualize Berhalter's tenure so far? Because I'm not confident in him doing the job at the highest levels. It was obvious to me that the GC final against Mexico showed how lacking he is when up against a Tata Martino.

Berhalter still makes baffling squad choices and players that don't really have merit. For example, making Kellyn Acosta a starter in the European camp for a Camp Cupcake performance is and was short-sighted. It rewards average MLS players who perform against lesser teams.

I've tried not to make an MLS vs Europe divide (notice how I refrained from explicitly lambasting MLS) but we as a fanbase also cannot deny the politics involved in our sport between federation, league and national team. To those who think I'm reopening old wounds, look deeper.

Former USMNT players like Geoff Cameron and Danny Williams talked openly about the MLS vs Europe divide within the locker room. It's inescapable. If we as a fanbase can see the difference between a Paul Arriola and a Pulisic or a Morris and Weah, the players see it too.

I don't think Berhalter has been intentionally sabotaging the team with forced MLS callups. But I do think that he puts far too much emphasis on familiarity, continuity and excuses for calling up inferior players that should not be in the team. He still hasn't learned from that.

To conclude, I don't think Berhalter is a bad coach. I don't want to see him fail just to prove myself correct. But I have had concerns and worries over the past two years since his tenure began and to me, he's just not the guy to take our best players to the next level.

His tactical philosophy is sometimes lagging and his publicly reported need for complex planning has led to mixed results. Even now, I still see excuses for his mistakes. I see the USMNT A team still concede silly goals that are the result of Berhalter's inexperience.

As a fan, I want to see my national team reach the top. And that's why I will not be apologetic to anyone who thinks that this has been too negative of an analysis or that I'm not a good USMNT fan.

We as fans need to hold US Soccer accountable. I welcome any discussion on this.

Perhaps Berhalter goes on to prove me wrong. Perhaps I'm too negative. Perhaps the USMNT go on to have a good 2022 World Cup in Qatar. But I cannot help but say that this national team could be doing better with a more experienced manager.

Time will tell if I'm wrong.