Climate litigation is often compared to tobacco litigation (similar patterns of deception & harmful products) & people often ask why it's realistic to expect the fossil industry to contract substantially or completely, given the cigarette industry is still around & profitable 1/n

It's a good question! The first time I heard it, I didn't have a good answer.

But now I think there are a bunch of reasons why Big Carbon is in a WORSE position than Big Tobacco.

The first & probably most important is replacement. The fossil fuel industry is in competition - existential competition - w/ other sources of energy. Those sources of energy are ultimately going to replace the fossil industry, the questions are 1) how completely & 2) how quickly

Tobacco (or nicotine) doesn't really face the same kind of competition or prospects for total replacement by substitution in the same way.

2nd, global warming will affect (& is already affecting) a huge number of people & indeed entire countries. Many local & national govs are going to turn on fossil fuel co's in an aggressive manner. In contrast many govs keep Big Cig alive b/c they're addicted to cigarette taxes.

3rd, "peak anger" at fossil fuel companies won't decline with the industry. Rather, after the industry starts to decline, global warming will just keep getting worse. We will be dealing with the fallout from fossil companies' greed, shortsightedness & deception for a LONG time.

All of this means fossil co's are destined to go down in history as some of the greatest corporate villains of all time. That's a done deal & people will continue to hate the industry, & be directly harmed by its past actions, long after the industry is greatly reduced or gone.

Many people have sort of "forgotten" about the tobacco industry - how powerful it was, how pervasive cigarettes were, how damaging smoking is, etc. And Big Tobacco has laid low, tried to rebrand itself, etc. That probably won't happen with the fossil fuel industry.

Now, of course fossil fuel companies are going to do (and are doing) everything they can to avoid or delay their fate. They have lots of smart people working for them and lots of money and experience in these matters. But structurally, historically, their fate is largely sealed.

The tobacco-fossil comparison is helpful to illustrate points of corporate malfeasance, product liability, deception, the potential role of courts, etc. Of course other comparisons can be made too (opioids, lead, asbestos etc.)

But really the fossil co's are in a WORSE position.