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Very much appreciate folks giving a crap about my mock. Not sure what it says about your collective tastes or my life choices that this is my thing, but here we are. So with the draft almost on the clock, a thread on what I've heard for WFT/NFL and the mock draft process. https://twitter.com/BenStandig/status/1387723338840264708
Trying to limit the timeline spam so here are thoughts on picks 3-18 and 20. Includes views from GMs, other sources on the 49ers' scenario. To Mac or not to Mac...
What's happening 21-32 including why Christian Darrisaw *might* drop outside the top 15 and the mock pick I recognize might have me smh at myself.
As for WFT, let’s start with the QB. Reported a couple of weeks back that sources felt that if WFT moved up, sources said **Justin Fields**, not Trey Lance. Intrigue comes if Fields gets to or past 9. Not ruling out a trade, but it’s always been a long shot to me for the cost.
My world view: WFT ideally rolls with Fitz and friends. Use the first 4 picks to fill in remaining holes, and get set up for next offseason. The veteran QB market is likely active again. You saw this year’s action and we know there are some disgruntled QBs out there.
Ron Rivera is also among the most popular people in the NFL. Tack on another playoff season and maybe you’re the team on a QBs trade wish list. Also, don’t buy into the notion that next year’s QB draft class stinks. Zach Wilson and Mac Jones were nowhere near 1s a year ago.
Day 2 QBs, I reported the interest in Davis Mills earlier in the process. They’ve also explored Kyle Trask lots. My sense is teams see more upside with Mills, the nation’s top prospect entering college in 2017. Again, no need to force. Some sources are out on all QB6 options.
One thought on Mills: Several sources wished he stayed in school another year. Think he'd be a 1st in 2022 with more playing time. If you really, really, really think that, then taking him in the 2nd makes for a worthy investment at the most important position.
Let’s talk about 19. Primary names I considered based on homework, sources, logic, blah blah: Vera-Tucker, Owusu-Koramoah, Darrisaw Jamin Davis, Trevon Moehrig. OL was the initial call for me even though there are nice Day 2 options (same at LB, fewer at FS). Yet I went with JOK.
Going JOK was kinda game theory with the mock draft contest in mind. Originally had JOK to Raiders at 17, but who knows what Jon Gruden does. The Flowers trade added a wrinkle; I originally had AVT or Darrisaw in the pole position. So...
When considering Darrisaw’s total evaluation by teams, that sources mainly have Davis in the 25-35 range, that teams value safeties less now, it seemed like if I ran 100 simulations JOK is the pick most often. LB is also a major need.
On drafting OT at 19. I get that Flowers might simply be a depth play, but there are only so many lineup spots. Unless there’s a Brandon Scherff trade, WFT has several guards. Unless Shaadiq Charles is battling Flowers and Schweitzer for snaps, he’s logically in the LT mix.
Hypocrisy alert: I still imagine they at least draft OL on Day 2. Players at those picks can & often should start/play a big role. Washington has studied several of them including Walker Little, Sam Cosmi. The investment decision may come down to how much they like Charles at LT.
As for Moehrig, WFT is a big fan of the TCU center fielder, per sources. Based on split reactions from sources I spoke with about Moehrig in the 1st at all, I see him as a target if you trade down. However...
There’s also a dearth of quality safeties in this draft. Washington has options on the roster in Reaves and Everett, but there's certainly room for improvement. So Moehrig at 19 is plausible especially if they see a drop-off at the position early in the draft.
