What recently transpired in Somalia's capital doesn’t serve anyone. Now that the dust has settled. It’s essential that we re-examine a recurring (social) media claim that purportedly underscored the recent conflict: fragmentation of the Somali Armed Forces (SAF). THREAD 1/n

Initial stage of a conflict provides fertile ground for misperceived facts and creates a fog of myths and misconceptions. As such, parsing the truth from the fog of conflict becomes a laborious effort. So is providing nuance to complex events. 2/n

Nuances matters – which incidentally spurred this thread. A recurring theme underpinning the recent conflict in Mogadishu was the erroneous claim that the SAF has split along clan lines. 3/n

A claim that has been repeated so frequently and uncritically that it became an ‘accepted’ fact. Which bears the question: Did the recent violent event bring to the fore a fragmented Somali military apparatus and a possible return to clan-based conflicts? 4/n

Not really, and here’s why. SAF’s comprised of three types of stock. The first stock consists of mono-clan militias who are still untrained, unaccountable and often engage in predatory behaviour. Their numbers have shrunk significantly over the years. 5/n

The second stock is comprised of locally-trained multi-clan militias (usually by AMISOM, EU, UK, etc.). They form a significant chunk of the SNA and are undergoing professionalisation. They respond to the military chain of command. 6/n

The third stock is comprised of special forces (Gorgor, Haramcad, Danab, etc.). These are highly-trained units (UK, Turkey), multi-clan and meritocratic. Furthermore, they have an effective system of accountability and are resolute in response. 7/n

Somalia has a chronic militia problem & is an additional source of insecurity. The Somali Gov’s inability to deal with untrained militias has come back to bite them. Indeed, the SNA unit that bolstered militias in Mogadishu were of the first stock–untrained & ragtag militias. 8/n

Illustrative examples:

SNA Stock 1 (SNA Integrated but untrained militias):

Some dozens have vacated their positions to bolster other militias. Latest reports indicate that they refuse to vacate areas unless they receive the funds they were promised. Location: Mogadishu. 9/n

SNA Stock 2 (Locally trained multi-clan militias - the bulk):

No sign of fragmentation. Publicly dispelled rumours of military fragmentation and urged a step up in fight against Al-Shabaab insurgents. Location: Hiiraan. 10/n

SNA Stock 3 (highly trained multi-clan elite forces):

No evidence of fragmentation. Location: Mogadishu.

In short, hyperbolic coverage provide fodder to a polarised society and risks deepening tensions. Again -- nuances matter!

11/n

Indeed, misreporting and sensationalising conflicts exacerbate mistrust, especially in a country that's recovering from a civil war. I’ve travelled extensively in Somalia -- and even surviving a suicide attack didn’t deter me from visiting again. 12/n

Different views on causes of the country's political uncertainty exist but no good can come out of black-and-white framing of issues. The vast majority in Somalia want the same thing – peace, security, stability, & opportunity. Politicians come and go; citizens remain. 13/n