I have a theory about the PM's resilience in the polls despite current "difficulties"...

An awful lot of voters like him personally. They don't kid themselves about his honesty. They've known his flaws for some time but don't care. They voted for him despite those flaws. 1/n

They're also aware that many other people detest him and are willing to use any available method to depose him, just as they tried to use any available method to prevent Brexit from happening. 2/n

But there is really only one way to depose a populist/popular politician - the ballot box. It worked with Trump in a way that impeachment simply wouldn't have. Voters like being the ones to choose their leaders. 3/n

So every time a non-ballot-box method is suggested as a means of getting shot of him, his voter base sees it as just that - the usual suspects trying something else, even when there is merit to the case. 4/n

And these repeated attempts are giving Boris increased political immunity - it's like a vaccine. They've tried too many times before and people don't like it. 5/n

Of course, vaccines don't offer 100% protection. One of these attempts (particularly around the flat refurb) may yet bring him down. And maybe deservedly. But don't expect any gratitude from his former supporters. 6/n

If it succeeds, it's not going to drive voters into the arms of Keir Starmer. They'll resent being deprived "unfairly" of their PM. You have to let voters have the final say. 7/7