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NOW: Alan Wm. Wolff discusses his decidedly positive view of the WTO’s future, saying that though what we have in the trading system is of great value does not make it sufficient. This is a time of testing for the WTO.
Watch live & follow this thread: https://www.piie.com/events/future-wto
Watch live & follow this thread: https://www.piie.com/events/future-wto
THE ROADMAP:
Understanding what we have
Identifying the primary challenges
Charting a path to the desired future
Understanding what we haveIdentifying the primary challengesCharting a path to the desired future
There are 8 major challenges facing the WTO right now:
Dealing with trade aspects of fighting the pandemic
Using trade to boost economic recovery; special attention to developing countries
Making recovery greener
Carbon border adjustment measures based on cooperation
Dealing with trade aspects of fighting the pandemicUsing trade to boost economic recovery; special attention to developing countries Making recovery greenerCarbon border adjustment measures based on cooperation
Forestalling fragmentation of digital economy
Putting in place binding dispute settlement that is accepted as legitimate by all litigants
Making the trading system visibly more positive for workers
Reforming the WTO as an institution
Curbing sauve qui peu—everyone save themselves—vaccine nationalism.Pious words are insufficient.
Transparency is needed:
Export restrictionsVaccine availability Prospects for increasing supply, Terms of licenses
Fighting the pandemic with trade:
Suspend tariffs on essential goods
Take into account the effects of export controls on others
Define the obligation to provide an ”equitable share”
Make trade facilitation measures for essential goods and services fully effective
Suspend tariffs on essential goodsTake into account the effects of export controls on othersDefine the obligation to provide an ”equitable share”Make trade facilitation measures for essential goods and services fully effective
More can be done:
Ad hoc Working Party on Covid 19
Coordinated subsidization of #GVC for essential goods (Bown)
Accelerated dispute settlement
Non-traditional responses – ”the Ngozi factor” (coordinated investment push)
Work with WHO, World Bank, IMF, OECD.
Ad hoc Working Party on Covid 19Coordinated subsidization of #GVC for essential goods (Bown)Accelerated dispute settlementNon-traditional responses – ”the Ngozi factor” (coordinated investment push)Work with WHO, World Bank, IMF, OECD.
Read Bown's work on a COVID-19 Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement here: https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/heres-how-get-billions-covid-19-vaccine-doses-world
Supporting economic recoveryRecognize trade is an essential supplement to fiscal & monetary policyHold the line on unnecessary protection (like on food)Use the 'bully pulpit' for maintaining #GVCRestore trade finance (avoid a K-shaped recovery)
Making the recovery greener
There must be structured discussion on trade and the environmentTechnical assistanceAiming for deliverables
Dealing with climate changePolicy support for low carbon technologiesAddressing industrial subsidies fostering sustainability outcomesReducing (ideally eliminating) fossil fuel subsidiesCurrent WTO rules are not an impediment to the adoption of environmental measures
Forestalling fragmentation of global digital economyEither WTO creates rule-book or individual Members willExpiration of waiver on electronic transmissions.Early harvest or bundle with hardest issues: freedom of cross-border data flows & forced location of servers
Making trade agreements enforceable againEnforceability is the distinguishing feature of the WTO Goal: binding dispute settlement that is accepted as legitimate by all litigants.The price of liberalization is trade remedies
Solution will be structural - a new Appellate Body
Settling disputes; not making law
Directions from Members to give deference to national interpretations
Expanded membership.
Time limits
No gap filling
& more...
Settling disputes; not making lawDirections from Members to give deference to national interpretationsExpanded membership.Time limitsNo gap filling& more...
A system designed to benefit people
Enabling commercial success of workers, farmers, small business & women
Political imperativePermit necessary trade remediesOpen foreign marketsAddress child labor/slave labor/forced laborAccept suppression of wages as subsidy
WTO Institutional reform...now!Must have:
Deliberation & negotiationEnforcement through dispute settlementA strong executiveCan only be achieved by addressing immediate challenges through actionA near-term separate compact/alternative venue?
The WTO needs new rules, Alan Wm. Wolff says:
No veto over the activity of others
No appeals into the void allowed
Consensus only required for rules of universal applicability
Future agreements will be multi-speed.
All expected to contribute to WTO moving forward
No veto over the activity of othersNo appeals into the void allowedConsensus only required for rules of universal applicabilityFuture agreements will be multi-speed.All expected to contribute to WTO moving forward
The path forward for the WTO:
Vaccine pact
Economic recovery
Making it green
CBAM pact
E-commerce pact
Dispute settlement–enforceability restored
WTO for people–rebalancing, trade finance
Institutional reform
Fisheries subsidies agreement & WFP Agreement
Vaccine pactEconomic recoveryMaking it greenCBAM pactE-commerce pactDispute settlement–enforceability restoredWTO for people–rebalancing, trade financeInstitutional reformFisheries subsidies agreement & WFP Agreement
