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THREAD: Lancet comment on elimination
So, ICYMI there& #39;s a Lancet comment piece doing the rounds, shared by several prominent proponents of Zero Covid, comparing countries that opted for elimination, to those which didn& #39;t
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00978-8/fulltext
Let& #39;s">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/... consider a few points:
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So, ICYMI there& #39;s a Lancet comment piece doing the rounds, shared by several prominent proponents of Zero Covid, comparing countries that opted for elimination, to those which didn& #39;t
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00978-8/fulltext
Let& #39;s">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/... consider a few points:
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1. The piece lists Australia, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, & South Korea as countries that went down the elimination route.
a) Japan *didn& #39;t* go for elimination, but mitigation. See this article from the BMJ: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n294">https://www.bmj.com/content/3... The case numbers also reflect this:
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a) Japan *didn& #39;t* go for elimination, but mitigation. See this article from the BMJ: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n294">https://www.bmj.com/content/3... The case numbers also reflect this:
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b) South Korea might have aimed for elimination, but it is unclear as to whether it can be classified as an elimination country currently. Furthermore, SK was far more prepared for a pandemic- having already faced MERS. And even they struggled:
https://www.bma.org.uk/news-and-opinion/prepared-for-the-worst-how-south-korea-fought-off-covid-19
3/">https://www.bma.org.uk/news-and-...
https://www.bma.org.uk/news-and-opinion/prepared-for-the-worst-how-south-korea-fought-off-covid-19
3/">https://www.bma.org.uk/news-and-...
c) Moreover it can be argued that Iceland& #39;s situation was not comparable with many other western countries H/T @ScienceShared
https://twitter.com/ScienceShared/status/1387701260841848843?s=20
4/">https://twitter.com/ScienceSh...
https://twitter.com/ScienceShared/status/1387701260841848843?s=20
4/">https://twitter.com/ScienceSh...
There& #39;s a lot to unpack here, the discussion with regard to vaccination rumbles ever on & it& #39;s not something I& #39;m going to rehash now, suffice to say that there are many signs from countries with a high level of vaccination eg Israel, that SARS-CoV-2 can be well controlled.
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"History shows that vaccination alone can neither single-handedly nor rapidly control a virus and that a combination of public health measures are needed for containment." This is an un referenced statement, but as a counterpoint:
https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/measles
6/">https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/measle...
https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/measles
6/">https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/measle...
The statement of the Biden health department is also included as an argument for elimination.
Worth noting that:
a) The US is not pursuing an elimination strategy, with many states dropping restrictions in favour of a mass vaccination approach
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Worth noting that:
a) The US is not pursuing an elimination strategy, with many states dropping restrictions in favour of a mass vaccination approach
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b) The US is hardly doing its part for vaccine equity:
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1385535841058140164?s=20
c)">https://twitter.com/DaveKeati... Politicians often say one thing, & do another (no I don& #39;t have a reference for this, other than 30+ years of being alive). Including them to justify an argument seems.... questionable
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https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1385535841058140164?s=20
c)">https://twitter.com/DaveKeati... Politicians often say one thing, & do another (no I don& #39;t have a reference for this, other than 30+ years of being alive). Including them to justify an argument seems.... questionable
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Next:
a) It has taken 11 months to create the Trans Tasman bubble, & those 11 months have not entirely been straightforward- & remember- this is a travel bubble between 2 pretty geographically isolated countries, probably the easiest "bubble" to make
https://7news.com.au/travel/new-zealand-locks-in-trans-tasman-travel-bubble-commencement-date-c-2523236
9/">https://7news.com.au/travel/ne...
a) It has taken 11 months to create the Trans Tasman bubble, & those 11 months have not entirely been straightforward- & remember- this is a travel bubble between 2 pretty geographically isolated countries, probably the easiest "bubble" to make
https://7news.com.au/travel/new-zealand-locks-in-trans-tasman-travel-bubble-commencement-date-c-2523236
9/">https://7news.com.au/travel/ne...
b) Worth also noting that closing borders has not been without consequence for many Australians
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/16/un-urges-australia-to-act-quickly-to-bring-stranded-australians-home
10/">https://www.theguardian.com/australia...
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/16/un-urges-australia-to-act-quickly-to-bring-stranded-australians-home
10/">https://www.theguardian.com/australia...
Ultimately, I think the most important question, is whether it& #39;s actually helpful to compare approaches like this- whilst clearly we can look to other countries for ideas & strategies, nobody has a time machine- we cannot go back to March 2020 & pursue an elimination attempt
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There are many reasons why a strategy in one country may not suit another. This is not a "one size fits all" situation, & every approach comes with benefits & trade offs.
I agree with the sentiments in this thread https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1387721386857222154?s=20
12/">https://twitter.com/VictimOfM...
I agree with the sentiments in this thread https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1387721386857222154?s=20
12/">https://twitter.com/VictimOfM...
Analyses like this are, by their nature, reductive. Covid (& the response to it) is country specific, & dependent upon a host of factors, eg: spread, existing capacity & technology, tolerance for surveillance & privacy, geography, the time interventions are implemented etc
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