How the unevenness of America's democracy threatens to unravel it, by @baseballot, @elena___mejia and me:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/advantage-gop/

Or, in other words, how Republicans have harnessed political institutions to gain power without winning a majority of votes.

The political institutions that make up the playing field of American politics are increasingly stacked in favor of one side: the Republican Party. The GOP has an advantage in the Electoral College, the Senate, the House of Representatives -- and in many state legislatures.

These features were partly intentional. But the House was intended to *counteract* the skew of the Senate -but has ended up reinforcing the tilt of the playing field even more.

After 2010, e.g., Republicans' ability to draw districts gave them a huge structural advantage.

And these structural biases reinforce once another: In 2017-2021, over 220 judges, including 3 Supreme Court justices, were appointed by a president who lost the popular vote and confirmed by a Senate that a majority of voters didn’t choose. And they have lifetime appointments.

GOP-controlled state legislatures have also been particularly active in trying to change the rules of the game to further benefit their party, such as by gerrymandering congressional seats, stripping the powers of Democratic governors-elect, and undermining ballot initiatives.

In part, this is because the GOP has embraced minority rule because of demographic changes. "[Republicans are] so fearful of the imagined harm that comes to their hold on power when a more diverse constituency becomes a part of the electoral process,” @hakeemjefferson told us.

And we can't rely on voters to punish anti-democratic actors. @annemeng_: "In a highly polarized environment, partisanship gets in the way of democratic ideals.”

Instead of rejecting anti-democratic moves, Republican voters are denying the legitimacy of elections they don't win:

Simply put, America’s counter-majoritarian institutions have never been stacked so high against one party. Democrats increasingly have to win *super*-majorities in order to govern. As @dziblatt says, "[A] system without any majority rule at all — it’s not really very democratic.”

With huge thanks to @JakeMGrumbach, Gretchen Helmke, @dziblatt, @hakeemjefferson, @annemeng_, @cdsamii, Frances Lee and @robmickey for their insights, and so many other political scientists for their important work on this topic.