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On 'lockdowns don't work'...
Sorry if it hurts, but they do.
Sorry if this also hurts - but whether they 'work' is not the question. The question should be whether they are absolutely *necessary* to achieve the goal (reducing deaths, but focus is often on cases)...
Sorry if it hurts, but they do.
Sorry if this also hurts - but whether they 'work' is not the question. The question should be whether they are absolutely *necessary* to achieve the goal (reducing deaths, but focus is often on cases)...
There are many papers suggesting not - e.g. less restrictive NPIs (e.g., social distancing, asking people to reduce social contacts) had a clear effect on transmission, but more stay-at-home orders & closing businesses produced no clear additional benefits https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13484
Several research articles highlight that cases were plateauing, if not declining before each of the 3 UK lockdowns
'Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?' https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/biom.13462?casa_token=yGQ0lXNcZkQAAAAA%3AjjIcErIZUne2s8rmAV_FtdVq7M1yw9lIgkg6pX725YneLmWSoviXMNrXhUWm1aWgwvx82vf7ncSU0N8
'Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?' https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/biom.13462?casa_token=yGQ0lXNcZkQAAAAA%3AjjIcErIZUne2s8rmAV_FtdVq7M1yw9lIgkg6pX725YneLmWSoviXMNrXhUWm1aWgwvx82vf7ncSU0N8
Summary here from @spectator: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/new-study-shows-covid-infections-were-falling-before-lockdown
Here's another great analysis from @cricketwyvern on the third lockdown: https://thecritic.co.uk/seven-indictors-that-show-infections-were-falling-before-lockdown-3-0/
And another here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-and-the-lockdown-effect-a-look-at-the-evidence
So the question should never have been 'do lockdowns work?'
Their wide-ranging negative impact should have been properly assessed
Then, the question should always be 'are lockdowns necessary?' Do we *need* to criminalise everyday life? Or can we ask people to make some changes?
Their wide-ranging negative impact should have been properly assessed
Then, the question should always be 'are lockdowns necessary?' Do we *need* to criminalise everyday life? Or can we ask people to make some changes?
P.s., if the purpose of lockdowns were to reduce *deaths*, this has even less evidence (and some evidence even indicates higher all-cause mortality in countries with the harshest and/or longest lockdowns) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
