Read on Twitter
On & #39;lockdowns don& #39;t work& #39;...
Sorry if it hurts, but they do.
Sorry if this also hurts - but whether they & #39;work& #39; is not the question. The question should be whether they are absolutely *necessary* to achieve the goal (reducing deaths, but focus is often on cases)...
Sorry if it hurts, but they do.
Sorry if this also hurts - but whether they & #39;work& #39; is not the question. The question should be whether they are absolutely *necessary* to achieve the goal (reducing deaths, but focus is often on cases)...
There are many papers suggesting not - e.g. less restrictive NPIs (e.g., social distancing, asking people to reduce social contacts) had a clear effect on transmission, but more stay-at-home orders & closing businesses produced no clear additional benefits https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/eci.13484">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/...
Several research articles highlight that cases were plateauing, if not declining before each of the 3 UK lockdowns
& #39;Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?& #39; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/biom.13462?casa_token=yGQ0lXNcZkQAAAAA%3AjjIcErIZUne2s8rmAV_FtdVq7M1yw9lIgkg6pX725YneLmWSoviXMNrXhUWm1aWgwvx82vf7ncSU0N8">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/...
& #39;Inferring UK COVID-19 fatal infection trajectories from daily mortality data: were infections already in decline before the UK lockdowns?& #39; https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/biom.13462?casa_token=yGQ0lXNcZkQAAAAA%3AjjIcErIZUne2s8rmAV_FtdVq7M1yw9lIgkg6pX725YneLmWSoviXMNrXhUWm1aWgwvx82vf7ncSU0N8">https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/...
Summary here from @spectator: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/new-study-shows-covid-infections-were-falling-before-lockdown">https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/n...
Here& #39;s another great analysis from @cricketwyvern on the third lockdown: https://thecritic.co.uk/seven-indictors-that-show-infections-were-falling-before-lockdown-3-0/">https://thecritic.co.uk/seven-ind...
And another here: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/covid-and-the-lockdown-effect-a-look-at-the-evidence">https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/c...
So the question should never have been & #39;do lockdowns work?& #39;
Their wide-ranging negative impact should have been properly assessed
Then, the question should always be & #39;are lockdowns necessary?& #39; Do we *need* to criminalise everyday life? Or can we ask people to make some changes?
Their wide-ranging negative impact should have been properly assessed
Then, the question should always be & #39;are lockdowns necessary?& #39; Do we *need* to criminalise everyday life? Or can we ask people to make some changes?
P.s., if the purpose of lockdowns were to reduce *deaths*, this has even less evidence (and some evidence even indicates higher all-cause mortality in countries with the harshest and/or longest lockdowns) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext">https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...
