1/ This is an important point picked up by @natashloder from last night's press conference about Van Tam limiting ambitions on daily cases. This should worry us a lot, and Labour shoulde challenging both strategy and motive on assumption he's reflecting govt policy. Short thread: https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1387458835112251397

2/ This is the most explicit admission yet that the govt is not going to go for a suppression strategy, sometimes called Zero Covid but in reality accepting that there will be the odd single/double figure outbreak that will be dealt with quickly by v rapid, extensive tracing.

3/ This is a perfectly feasible point to get to from the numbers we have now: 2,000 cases a day, many already clustered for tracing, is about 10 per local authority, and with Serco-style resources better deployed for tracing & isolation support, it can happen.

4/ And once cases are into the 10s a day, we really are into Aus-style territory, though obviously not as cut off. This, for example, is what Victoria achieved through tracing improvements: Aug 1st last year it had just 316 cases less than whole of UK with 1/10 of population

5/ So why is it not UK policy to try to get below about 2,000 cases a day? I think the answers is twofold. First, this would mean a total admission that current T&T run by Serco etc is more or less pointless, and that all resources need to go to local authorities.

6/ I've covered just how pointless the core Serco/Sitel operation is https://bickerrecord.medium.com/test-trace-and-the-mysterious-16-1ed0b1d0446b through scrutiny of the govt's own statistics and especially it's quiet rule change to show tracing work which has not in reality taken place.

7/ But even more importantly, the govt does not want to go for a suppression strategy because it would be bad for business, if you're in the right kind of business.

8/ The devt of an ongoing, long-term Covid certification programme, the first part of which Grant Shapps announced yesterday under #pmqs cover, actually requires ongoing low level cases for its legitimacy. I set out the detailed on govt preparations here https://bickerrecord.medium.com/the-great-covid-testing-certification-scandal-4d7bb7c29a2c

9/ So while I've no particular grudge against Van Tam, it looks clear to me that yesterday was an important step in conditioning us to the idea that 2,000 cases a day is the new norm, and that's why we need mass testing and privacy invasive certification for the long term.

10/ Labour really does need to challenge that new norm before it's embedded, because there is another way: proper trace & isolate services run publicly, with testing surge when it is appropriate for public health reasons, not because the testing cartel is doing well from it. END

6/ I've covered

Addendum: This thread and the Lancet article covers the grounds in more detail https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1387663570842923009 though doesn't do the political/corruption motivation.