Thread⚡️🇪🇺 What does the EU’s new 55% emissions target mean for #coal power?

[TL;DR It will be almost gone by 2030, but Germany & Poland are in denial]

EC models show there can be no more than 55 TWh of coal-fired electricity in 2030 for the EU-27 to be on track for 55% emissions cuts.

This looks achievable. At the current rate of decline, coal power would hit zero by 2026.

Official models for 🇪🇺🇺🇸🇬🇧 show they are all targeting zero-carbon power in the 2030s - leaving less and less room for coal this decade.

However, some EU Member States missed the memo.

They are still planning to generate 282 TWh of electricity from coal in 2030.

Nearly SIX times the amount the EC says is consistent with 55%. 

Germany and Poland will be the EU’s two largest producers of coal-fired electricity in 2030, according to their climate plans.

Together they will be responsible for more than HALF of EU power sector emissions in 2030. 

Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel said at Biden’s #LeadersClimateSummit that she “heard” @antonioguterres and his call for @OECD countries to end coal power by 2030 - but just re-stated the country’s dangerously late 2038 exit date.

Meanwhile, Poland plans to keep mining coal until 2049.

via @paczyzak

Even Poland’s ‘high ETS’ energy scenario plans 75 TWh of coal-fired electricity in 2030 - single-handedly blowing past the EU’s upper limit for coal in 2030.

But Poland’s assumptions seem out of touch.

The Potsdam Institute found that Europe's new 55% emissions target will see an increase in carbon prices that could end coal power by 2030.

via @PIK_Climate

There is a lot at stake. What happens in Germany and Poland will reverberate around the world.

A rapid coal exit is necessary to keep the world on track for 1.5C.

The EU can join the US in accelerating towards zero-carbon power by 2035.
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The latest news from Germany makes it even clearer that 2038 is too late.
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For more background on what the EC's -55% means for the power sector (and other sectors) see the excellent paper from @climact @EcologicBerlin
You can follow @EmberClimate.
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