1/ Let’s be honest. #BTC has done nothing since it started to consolidate around 23rd February. That is over two months. Forever in #BTC time. Is NGU technology broken? We have to face the truth and ask hard questions

2/ First “so what?”. Well, I for one am bored. I need excitement in my sick life. I have even started to trade Dominance ( #ETH/ #BTC ) to keep myself amused. Slippery slope. I might buy #HEX next!

3/ Should it change my strategy? I “buy the dip / twitter panic”. Context: I hold just over 30 #BTC and 150 #ETH and some long futures trading exposure. That’s 2.3 million dollars in crypto. That’s 40% of my total wealth (liquid, illiquid and my main house)

4/ I have no set upper limit on my #BTC but I feel I am topped (belief, risk aversion) in #ETH. I am borrowed to $500,000 in my investment portfolio but some of that is still in fiat.

5/ So depending on emotions, and the path #BTC takes over the next few months, I will probably slowly increase my stack. 50 #BTC would be wonderful but I am too late for that, realistically.

6/ Despite being schooled by Chicago flat earthers on efficient markets, I still draw lines on my charts!!! I favour horizontal lines and I look at mainly 2 hour and 15 minutes charts (with daily for context and 10 seconds if I am considering a position).

7/ What’s on my chart today? A hard line at $48,450. That gets breached and I do a rethink. Bets are off: I kill my long futures, wait for a modicum of stability at $42,000 or $36,000 and buy heavily at either of those two levels.

8/ You do realise that is the worst scenario for my mental health and the best for my long term wealth……

9/ But I don’t expect that. Looking up the linear x-axis (logarithms are for my Aristo slide rule) I have lines at 53,670, 55,200, 56,125, 57,134, 59,475, 60,580, 61,780, 62,855. No they don’t form any sexy quant sequence.

10/ These were all times #BTC either hung around or turned around in the past and at the time seemed important. I leave them their as historical reminders, not much else.

11/ Which numbers matter? None of these. All that matters to me is how many #BTC I have (and nowadays how big my mining hashpower is, but that is another story!)

12/ So what do I do – today, tomorrow? I last bought at around 48, and before that around 56 and 57. One feature of my setup is that my fiat is held in my bank. It’s a security pain to move more than $30k out in any 24 hours period

13/ I could take a big slug out, suffer the interrogation from Manila or Mumbai and buy stable coins on Kraken. But that makes it too easy for my fingers to buy too quickly.

14/ So I stay in fiat, and yet move $30k to Kraken when I am in the purchase “area” of price and then buy a slug of about 0.4 or 0.8 #BTC when my waters tell me to.

15/ And then immediately load it onto my Ledger S.

16/ All of this reveals I am a strategic (6+ months) #BTC bull. Blame S2FX, Alden, Pal and others. I am a HODLer also out of conviction, and aversion to punitive CGT payment to government

17/ What questions? – only I wonder when $100k will be breached, and how many #BTC I will hold when it is breached. Nothing else. Not investment advice – but NGU’s not broken.

18/ How many #BTC have you bought since 23rd February? I thing the spring sale is coming to an end. A big reason why is the floor numbers.

19/ Floors are either historical, technical (l long term moving averages), from the chain data (Mr Woo, thank you) or models like S2FX. My composite floor in my head this morning involves primarily my $48,450 obsession and Woo $50,000 and the long term daily EMA(100) $49,300

20/ These are rising, especially the EMA ($7,000 per month, although its slowed in past few days).

21/ Absent a significant breach of some time persistence, I do not see many if any opportunities to buy sub $50k #BTC ever again (bitter-sweet news!),

22/ Enough rambling!! TL;DR is: if you believe the narrative it is logical to buy in this range of $50,000 to $60,000 so as to maximise your only number which matters – the number of #BTC which you hold,