thread

LOSE/LOSE

1. I really didn't expect the EU to proceed with litigation against AstraZeneca (AZ). Many lawyers have given their views on the legal merits of litigation & even staunch Europhiles concluded the threats were at best weak, more realistically, pretty hopeless.

2. The contract is governed by Belgian (national) jurisdiction. An interim remedy is sought, with a full hearing towards the end of May.

3. It's a bizarre situation. The anti-vax narrative & jittery response to the AZ vaccine has cut through, with some EU member states limiting the vaccine availability to certain age cohorts.

4. To their credit, the EMA have been calm & dealt with concerns professionally & diligently. But member states have chosen to adopt their own differing restrictions.

5. The confusion & mixed messaging has knocked confidence in the AZ vaccine & uptake has been low in some countries.

6. It's difficult to say whether comments made by political leaders were intended to reduce demand for vaccination due to low stocks, or to smear AZ because its invention & funding was a British (and Swedish) success.

7. Regardless of motive, it appears to me that the EU has lost its mind over the vaccines. It took on the role of procuring vaccines for its member states & has been globally embarrassed by its failures.

8. So naturally good old Blighty had to be whipping boy.

It's worth keeping in mind that even if AZ had capitulated & given UK manufactured vaccines to the EU, the numbers would have made little difference due to population size.

9. Assuming stocks were split 50/50 EU/UK, the number of vaccines exported to the EU would have been maybe 1.5 - 2 million a week. Not enough to make a significant improvement to the EU rollout. But enough to hinder the UK's rollout significantly.

10. So we now see litigation from the EU seeking to compel vaccine supplies from a firm whose reputation has been dragged through the mud, whose vaccine it has tarnished & whose premises it has raided, along with seizure of goods.

11. Not forgetting the de facto export ban of vaccines to the UK via the swiftly abandoned Article 16 procedure.

Safe to say that political goodwill is a little scarce.

12. In terms of the EU's vaccine procurement with other firms: Valneva has recently declined to supply & Novavax also declined an EU order a few weeks ago. Flirtation with the Sputnik vaccine has hit an obstacle over quality control & the Chinese vaccines have efficacy issues.

13. It leaves the EU reliant on Pfizer & Moderna, but both firms have shortfalls in production & supply.

14. So the EU cannot win, no matter the outcome of the litigation.

If, as expected, the EU loses, it will look like a vindictive neighbour, hell bent on causing harm & disruption to the UK & its people. UK cases were much higher than Europe's when vaccine demands were 1st made.

15. If the EU wins, eyebrows will be raised mightily high throughout the pharmaceutical & legal world & Belgian jurisdiction will take a reputation hit. In a country with several pharma firms, I'd be surprised if Belgium succumb to pressure from the power of the EU.

16. It's not how you start, it's how you finish. The EU knows this very well. It can only limp along with the limited vaccine portfolio it has & hope the warmer weather eventually sees the pandemic in retreat.

17. In the meantime we can ponder the sanity of the EU in suing for supplies of a not for profit vaccine that is going to waste in some member states due to lack of demand.

It's almost like they're a vexatious litigant.