Let's talk about what we can KNOW based on the Rudy search, vs. what we can speculate or hear about from anon sources.

HOORAY KIDS ITS FEDERAL CRIMINAL EPISTEMOLOGY TIME

/1

/2 First let's review what a federal search warrant means. It means that the feds provided a sworn affidavit to a magistrate judge showing that there is probable cause to believe these specific locations have evidence of a specified federal crime.

/3 Note there the difference between a criminal complaint and a search warrant -- they don't have to show proof that a particular person committed the crime, just proof that this LOCATION will have EVIDENCE of the commission of the federal crime.

/4 Federal magistrate judges are, in my experience, **decent** at reviewing search warrant applications, particularly for problem locations like a lawyer's office. That means they are not as rubber-stampy as they might be in other circumstances and sometimes turn it down....

/5 ....at least in part, for instance, by rejecting a particular location or a request to look for a particular set of items or documents, or not allowing it to be done at night. Sometimes they make the feds go back and rework it a bit.

/6 This is in sharp contrast to state judges, who in my experience will sign a warrant even if the entirety of the probable cause statement is "you have beautiful thighs."

/7 So ANYWAY, we know that a federal magistrate judge was convinced there's probable cause that Rudy's home and office had evidence of a federal crime. But which crime, and based on what?

/8 Well, RUDY knows better than we do -- because RUDY now has a copy of the warrant -- the document saying "you can search these locations for this evidence of violation of these laws." Note that's NOT the affidavit -- he doesn't get that unless someone screws up.

/9 If we see the warrant -- someone leaks it, or Rudy hands it out because he's legally incontinent -- we'll see what specific federal laws they think were broken, which will tell us something about the investigation. We should also see what they searched for, which tells more.

/10 Rudy will also get a receipt of the things taken. Again, if that gets leaked or dropped by Rudy, we'll see the feds' (usually unhelpfully vague) descriptions of what they took.

/11 We can also tell things from the fact that there was also a search warrant for Victoria Toensing's home, apparently for her phone. That helps us narrow down what the search could be about.

/12 All of this may be corroborated by grand jury subpoenas (if they are leaked or publicized by people who get them), which will further detail what docs are being sought and what statutes are allegedly violated.

/13 Because Rudy is a lawyer, technically, we also know that the warrant required high-level approval. This could not be just some local AUSA power tripping. This went up the chain and got approved.

/14 Beyond that, we enter into the realm of (a) speculation (b) statements by unnamed sources of uncertain reliability and (c) talking head bullshit.

/end