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Total mortality is ~ baseline presently, even though COVID deaths are ~ 5,000 per week presently.
A thread.
Data slow to come in, and my conclusion may be wrong. Time will tell.
A thread.
Data slow to come in, and my conclusion may be wrong. Time will tell.
Below, COVID deaths per week compared to excess all-cause mortality (ACM).
The increase in deaths per week is less than the COVID deaths per week for week ending 3/13/21
The increase in deaths per week is less than the COVID deaths per week for week ending 3/13/21
The total ACM for week ending 3/13 will increase a bit over time.
My guess, from looking at how things have trended in the past, is that it will not increase very much further.
I may be wrong - obviously.
My guess, from looking at how things have trended in the past, is that it will not increase very much further.
I may be wrong - obviously.
The total COVID deaths for week ending 3/13 will also increase a bit over time. The data comes into the CDC quite slowly.
We can look at weeks more recent than 3/13. These show the same trend, however they are less reliable. They will be revised substantially.
I feel week ending 3/13 is reasonably stable at this time, but don't feel I can confidently say much about more recent weeks.
I feel week ending 3/13 is reasonably stable at this time, but don't feel I can confidently say much about more recent weeks.
The CDC is the source of all of the data I have plotted. Additional details can be found on this thread, which I posted a week ago. https://twitter.com/efb_1/status/1384985263622008832?s=20
Mortality was extremely high relative to normal in 2020 and so far in 2021.
Per my calcs (not shown), 642,216 more died in the 52 weeks ending 3/13/21 than the prior 52 week year.
Leave aside that the red line is not exactly where it should be. The image below gives the idea.
Per my calcs (not shown), 642,216 more died in the 52 weeks ending 3/13/21 than the prior 52 week year.
Leave aside that the red line is not exactly where it should be. The image below gives the idea.
If we have excess mortality in one period, we hope to have less than normal mortality in a different period. This is not guaranteed, however.
If it does happen, it could be:
- a little less for a long time, or
- a lot less for a shorter time
If it does happen, it could be:
- a little less for a long time, or
- a lot less for a shorter time
We should hope for a "lot less for a shorter time."
That would suggest many of those who died were near end of life. That is a little less horrible than the alternative.
Anyway we slice it, it is still tragic.
I don't know how it will end up.
That would suggest many of those who died were near end of life. That is a little less horrible than the alternative.
Anyway we slice it, it is still tragic.
I don't know how it will end up.
I think we may be below baseline ACM for the week ending 4/3/21. I am not confident about this. If we do end up below, it won't be by much either.
But hopefully future weeks will be substantially below.
But hopefully future weeks will be substantially below.
Below an ugly plot that shows revision history for ACM.
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