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A Slight Risk (2/5) of severe wx has been issued by the SPC. In the slight risk, damaging wind and a weak spin up isolated tornado will be the threats. Damaging wind will be the threat outside the slight risk in the Marginal Risk (1/5). Technical info in below thread #ohwx (1/10)
Synoptic Setup: A 40-50 kt jet core will set itself up over northern Ohio today. Outside of that core, 500 mb winds will still be in the upper 30s/lower 40s. #ohwx (2/10)
As an upper low continues its temp advection, interaction with the ridge to the south will tighten the height gradient, causing a stronger aloft jet max. This will work to slightly deepen a SFC low tracking in southern ON, enhancing a deformation zone near Lake Erie #ohwx (3/10)
Isallobaric tug will enhance this deformation zone, and generate a cold front. Downstream of this front, sfc WAA & moisture advection will contribute to SBCAPE values between 1000 and 1500 j/kg. #ohwx (4/10)
Thermodynamically speaking, there will be a few limiting factors. Only a few pockets of dry air aloft will contribute to fairly marginal midlevel lapse rates near the MALR. This will keep the hail threat minimal. #ohwx (5/10)
However, with these pockets of dry air aloft, combined with widespread inverted V soundings showing on the HRRR, and expected DCAPE between 700 and 1000 j/kg, damaging wind will be possible with any cell today. #ohwx (6/10)
Kinematically speaking, 0-6 km shears (due to the jet core aloft) ~low 30s will support bowing cells & organized multicells. Supercells will not occur today due to 1.) bulk shear <40 kt and 2.) straight hodos promoting splitting of updrafts that do acquire rotation #ohwx (7/10)
However, a landspout tornado can't be ruled out as updrafts interact with vertical SFC VORT generated by the lake breeze in NE OH. If this were to occur it would be brief, very isolated, and lower end in intensity. #ohwx (8/10)
Mode: With ESE'ly shear vectors somewhat perpendicular to the lifting mechanism, semi-discrete multicell clusters capable of bowing will be the initial mode of storms today, before things line out by evening. Expect initiation between 3 and 4 PM. #ohwx (9/10)
Have multiple ways to receive warnings, and remain alert for rapidly changing weather conditions today. #ohwx (10/10)
