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It's late April, 2021, and Manitoba is seeing yet another wave of Covid19. This time it is causing more severe disease in a relatively younger group. Health officials have a big task: What is the most effective way to prevent undue harm: Is it fear? More restrictions?
Thread.
Thread.
Disclaimer: I am an infectious disease physician, not a public health official.
I have been among those in the past, calling for earlier, temporary public health restrictions in Manitoba to help prevent indoor transmission of Covid19 during a surge in cases.
So, grain of salt.
I have been among those in the past, calling for earlier, temporary public health restrictions in Manitoba to help prevent indoor transmission of Covid19 during a surge in cases.
So, grain of salt.
Covid19 is transmitted through breathing indoor air, in the presence of an infected person (symptomatic or not).
Fear of infection, can be useful measure short-term. We saw that Spring 2020, when MB crushed transmission through AMAZING adherence to stay-at-home guidance.
Fear of infection, can be useful measure short-term. We saw that Spring 2020, when MB crushed transmission through AMAZING adherence to stay-at-home guidance.
Lockdowns in Manitoba have saved many lives, but have created social, mental, and financial hardship.
Fear of the unknown, a sense of 'we're in it together', and social cohesion, slowly gives way to fatigue and even anger with restrictions.
So... What to do?
Fear of the unknown, a sense of 'we're in it together', and social cohesion, slowly gives way to fatigue and even anger with restrictions.
So... What to do?
For my money, the key is to reinforce messaging to help people understand degrees of risk and benefit.
While masks and restrictions on indoor gatherings help, they are temporary measures. They will not get us out of this. And, SOME of them have fairly limited benefit overall.
While masks and restrictions on indoor gatherings help, they are temporary measures. They will not get us out of this. And, SOME of them have fairly limited benefit overall.
For example, the probability of transmitting virus outdoors is much lower than indoors. (~1/20 the risk of a similar indoor exposure).
So: wearing a mask outdoors, and putting limits on small gatherings, are not very helpful. (Image source: CDC)
So: wearing a mask outdoors, and putting limits on small gatherings, are not very helpful. (Image source: CDC)
My main concern with these messages and restrictions on outdoor gatherings is that they would cause some people to become increasingly fed up with the restrictions, and gather indoors (esp. with unvaccinated people).
To be clear, gathering indoors is still extremely risky.
To be clear, gathering indoors is still extremely risky.
On the other hand, vaccination against Covid19 is effective, our best tool to fight the virus, and our way out of this and future waves in our province.
I think that clearer messaging about what can be done safely, once individuals have been fully vaccinated, would be helpful.
I think that clearer messaging about what can be done safely, once individuals have been fully vaccinated, would be helpful.
The CDC in the USA has put out guidelines to address this. It is an evolving story (will change) as more and more people become vaccinated there.
But, we could use some of these tools in Canada and Manitoba, to show everyone that YES, the end of lockdowns is in sight.
But, we could use some of these tools in Canada and Manitoba, to show everyone that YES, the end of lockdowns is in sight.
We're not out of this yet, but take heart. Vaccines prevent severe disease, AND they do reduce viral transmission. This is ALREADY turning the tide in our fight against this virus.
This message is, I hope, a positive one. Get vaccinated - as soon as it is possible to do so.
This message is, I hope, a positive one. Get vaccinated - as soon as it is possible to do so.
