A thread on the allocation of vaccines across Indian States. Some argue that the existing allocation of #vaccines is fine, that the new system of States being free to buy vaccines directly would be equally fine, and that there is nothing to worry. Is is true? Hardly. 1/n

How do we check if the current allocations are equitable? Some compare allocations with population shares. But this would be wrong, as the eligible population is only those >45 years of age (till 30 April). A note from two scholars from AshokaU gives some interesting results. 2/n

They have 2 graphs: allocation/case and allocation/45+ individual. First, vaccine allocation/case is the lowest in Maharashtra, Kerala and Delhi (<5/case), and highest in Gujarat and Rajasthan (>29/case). M, K & D are States badly affected by rising cases. Why the disparity? 3/n

Second, allocation/45+ individual is lower in States with higher population shares of elderly. Eg:- Kerala (16%), Tamil Nadu (14.8%) & Maharashtra (11.2%) had elderly shares higher than in India (10.7%) in 2021. But their allocation/45+ was lower than in Gujarat/Rajasthan. 4/n

Both the above graphs have been borrowed from the research note uploaded at https://ceda.ashoka.edu.in/covid-vaccination-program-not-a-rosy-picture/. See also how it also shows the sharp fall of daily vaccinations in India. #TikaUtsav has been a major failure, with no vaccines available anywhere. 5/n

Clearly, there are stark disparities in State-wise vaccine distribution. This is when the GoI, a supposedly neutral player, was distributing vaccines. The bad would change for the worse when private vaccine firms come to decide on allocating scarce vaccines to States. 6/n

In the last 2 days, I spoke to officers in States in charge of negotiating with GoI & vaccine firms. They say that no formula of sharing is used now by GoI to distribute vaccines to States. States have submitted the number of persons they wish to cover every day/week/month. 7/n

GoI takes its own call on what to give to whom and when. One officer says GoI is now diverting all its current supplies to four States - Gujarat, Delhi, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh - and is strictly rationing supplies to other States, even if they are needy. 8/n

Vaccine firms are telling officers of States to wait out May 2021. In one State, Bharat Biotech promised just 1 million doses for May when they asked for 10 million doses. SII told one State that they may not be able to give it anything at all for the first 3 weeks of May. 9/n

Vaccine firms tell States that they are constrained to reserve most of their production in May to meet the needs of the GoI's 50% quota. Looks like GoI's 50% is now non-negotiable, while the 50% of States is negotiable. Thus, GoI's 50% has usurped the other 50% of States! 10/n

This excess demand from GoI would ebb only when the vulnerable population of 45+ is covered. That would be August 2021. No great supply expansion is expected till then from either SII or BB. Sputnik V may trickle in from May or June 2021, but would be too small in quantity. 11/n

Officers are frustrated, as the demand from 18+ persons is rising for May. GoI knew this would happen, given the acuteness of vaccine shortage. This is precisely why it shifted to the 50:50 policy so that blame could be politically shifted on to the shoulders of States. 12/n

No wonder, today was a disaster for 18+ persons in registration/appointment. CoWIN crashed. So did Arogya Setu & Umang. People couldn't register. Those who registered couldn't get appointments. It's an all-round failure of governance. 13/n

The failure of the over-centralised apps is coming in for severe criticism from tech experts. But the central point of crisis is not in apps; they only reflect the larger malaise. Its simple: there are no vaccines anywhere. When will this blow away? Not anytime soon. 14/n

Its an all-round failure of both an inept state and a reckless "free" market. There is neither equity nor efficiency. n/n

@threadreaderapp please unroll