first: the science underpinning most popular claims of collapse is not supported by climate scientists. it& #39;s startling how often non-scientists shouting "science says!!! + [exaggerated claim]" are then fact-checked by the same scientists they& #39;re misrepresenting
but collapse, in the way most people think of it, goes beyond physical changes: wars over resources, displacement from extreme weather, political instability when crops fail… their likelihood isn& #39;t assessed in IPCC reports because there aren& #39;t enough studies to draw from
so we& #39;re in a weird situation where some vocal non-scientists claim we& #39;re on track to collapse, despite science not saying that, and scientists debunk the science behind those claims, but aren& #39;t able to definitively rule out the result either
two reasons this matters now:
1) it worsens the mental health burden both on people relatively removed from the effects of climate change as well those already living with more extreme weather — particularly cilmate-aware young people across the global south
2) it affects* climate action, inspiring some people to act more urgently but leaving others feeling hopeless, even if the people exaggerating are themselves fighting climate change and don& #39;t want anybody to give up

*the net effect is not clear
so is society going to collapse? there& #39;s no scientific study that says yes. most scientists I& #39;ve spoken to consider it a possibility. most people (governments, scientists, businesses) are not planning for it. smaller collapses (regions, not countries) are more plausible.
one scientist said it& #39;s not a helpful question: we should instead focus on reducing harm by burning fewer fossil fuels — there& #39;s no cliff edge beyond which we& #39;re doomed and further action to stop climate change becomes useless
thanks to @mitzijonelle @ClimateOpp @JacquelynGill @ClimatePsych @MichaelEMann @sarah_wien and Raphael Stevens for comments
You can follow @NiranjanAjit.
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