the q of whether climate change will maybe/likely/inevitably collapse civilization is full of misinformation and, some scientists say, increasingly pushing people they know to despair

are there good-faith arguments for taking societal breakdown seriously? https://www.dw.com/en/climate-collapse-civilization-societal-breakdown-misinformation-mental-health/a-56848557

first: the science underpinning most popular claims of collapse is not supported by climate scientists. it's startling how often non-scientists shouting "science says!!! + [exaggerated claim]" are then fact-checked by the same scientists they're misrepresenting

but collapse, in the way most people think of it, goes beyond physical changes: wars over resources, displacement from extreme weather, political instability when crops fail… their likelihood isn't assessed in IPCC reports because there aren't enough studies to draw from

so we're in a weird situation where some vocal non-scientists claim we're on track to collapse, despite science not saying that, and scientists debunk the science behind those claims, but aren't able to definitively rule out the result either

two reasons this matters now:
1) it worsens the mental health burden both on people relatively removed from the effects of climate change as well those already living with more extreme weather — particularly cilmate-aware young people across the global south

2) it affects* climate action, inspiring some people to act more urgently but leaving others feeling hopeless, even if the people exaggerating are themselves fighting climate change and don't want anybody to give up

*the net effect is not clear

so is society going to collapse? there's no scientific study that says yes. most scientists I've spoken to consider it a possibility. most people (governments, scientists, businesses) are not planning for it. smaller collapses (regions, not countries) are more plausible.

one scientist said it's not a helpful question: we should instead focus on reducing harm by burning fewer fossil fuels — there's no cliff edge beyond which we're doomed and further action to stop climate change becomes useless

thanks to @mitzijonelle @ClimateOpp @JacquelynGill @ClimatePsych @MichaelEMann @sarah_wien and Raphael Stevens for comments