There is so much interesting data in this single release. Lots of insight into how the Centre has been prioritising vaccine deliveries to States. Here's a thread of some of the key insights. https://twitter.com/PIB_India/status/1387332434274910212?s=20
There is a strong correlation between a State's share in total vaccines sent out by the Centre and that State's share in India's population. That correlation is 0.87. In simple terms, the most populous States received the highest shares of vaccine doses.
There is also a strong correlation (0.8) between a State's share in vaccine doses sent by the Centre and its share in total active cases. Simply, States contributing the most to active COVID-19 cases are also getting the highest share of vaccine doses.
Here's a tabular and colour-coded way of looking at it. This table is sorted by the top 10 States with the highest shares of vaccine doses (blue). See how that overlaps with the top 10 States with highest population share (yellow) and share in active cases (green).
On the face of it, there doesn't seem to be a political bias in the Centre's decision of which State gets how many doses. The most populous and the most infected States (and there's of course quite an overlap here) received the most doses.
There is, of course, more analysis that can be done. For example, the difference between a State's vaccine share and population share can tell you whether that State is "over-served" or "under-served". Similarly, for vaccine share and share in active cases.
The States in green have received a share of doses that is higher than their population share. As such, they are "over-served" while the ones in red have received a share of doses lower than their population share ("under-served").
Here is the doses-active cases variance. States in green received a share of doses higher than their contribution to total active cases, while those in red had a share in active COVID-19 cases higher than their share in vaccine doses. This needs to be balanced out better.
Conclusion: The numbers show there is no clear evidence of the Centre playing politics with its vaccine allocation policy so far. The numbers do show possible ways in which the policy can be reoriented to better serve the States with the highest burdens.
You can follow @SharadRaghavan.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: