Weekly French Covid thread
All stats in the last week moved in the right direction, some more than others. That’s the 1st time that has happened for 2 months. Daily average of cases was 27,857 – a fall of 16.6%. Deaths were down; incidence rate down; acute care slightly down 1/11

President Macron will appear on TV soon – maybe Sun or Mon, probably an interview, not a formal address – to give details on easing of social restrictions from mid-May. He was in cautious mood when he spoke to mayors on Tues. He said curfews will last in some form until June 2/11

PM Jean Castex may give more clues this afternoon. Although the 3rd wave of C19 is receding slowly, there are causes for anxiety. The South African variant is spreading in greater Paris. The vax roll-out is doing pretty well but there are many slots untaken (not only for AZ) 3/11

Overall, the stats so far justify Macron's risky decision last week to ease the 3rd “light” lockdown from Monday (when the 10k roaming limit and the need for a reason to leave home will vanish). The problem he now faces is to manage expectations of freedom as summer nears. 4/11

This week’s stats.
By my calculation, new cases fell over 7 days to last night to a daily av. of 27,856, compared to 33,422 last week. The wonderful Covidtracker site gives slightly different figures based on earlier dates but illustrates the trend in the graph below. 5/11

Deaths fell in the same period to 270 a day from 296.2 last week and 315 the week before.
Acute care remains at a very high level but fell to 5,943 occupied beds, compared to 5,984 last week.
All hospital beds occupied fell from 30,868 to 30,281. 6/11

Other figures .
The incidence rate nationwide – cases per 100,000 people over 7 days – fell to 302, compared to 337.4 last week and 342.4 and 405 in previous weeks.
The reproduction rate is 0.92 – under the level in which the virus progresses. 7/11

The vaccination programme is proceeding apace – but not quite apace enough to hit France’s target of 20m first jabs by 15 May. By last night 14.5m first jabs had been given. Over 300,000 a day are needed to hit the target but the current average is around 220,000. 8/11

An acceleration is promised. Plenty of doses are available. But 220,000+ slots – some with up to 20 jabs each – were untaken across France yesterday. This is partly – but not wholly – due to AZ-refusal. The govt is considering jabbing under 55’s earlier than planned. 9/11

One serious worry – an unexplained boom in the SA variant in Ile de France (greater Paris). Its share of the total jumped from 6% to 10% in a week. Some suggest that this may be the indian variant, mis-identified. Officially, the Indian variant hasn't yet appeared in France 10/11

Hang in there.
11/11