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I keep hearing that the UK should open up now... because Israel! There's seems to be a misunderstanding about what actually happened in Israel. Israel has had fairly strict mitigations in place & schools were opened only after 57% of the population was fully vaccinated. Thread
I keep hearing that because infections in Israel have declined during vaccination, this is a sign other countries can open up. What people forget is that Israel didn't follow a vaccine-only policy, but a multi-pronged strategy aimed at containing transmission during roll-out.
Here are a few examples:
Schools in Israel only opened on the 18th April after 57% of their population was *fully* vaccinated, and children wear masks in schools.
They had a mask mandate outdoors & indoors until very recently (much stricter than the UK) https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/coronavirus-israel-lifts-public-mask-mandate-opens-schools/article34349759.ece
Schools in Israel only opened on the 18th April after 57% of their population was *fully* vaccinated, and children wear masks in schools.
They had a mask mandate outdoors & indoors until very recently (much stricter than the UK) https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/coronavirus-israel-lifts-public-mask-mandate-opens-schools/article34349759.ece
While the outdoor mandate has been recently dropped, people still need to wear masks indoors.
There is a focus on maintaining ventilation, masking and social distancing in schools that opened only very recently when community transmission was very low. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-reopen-education-face-mask-b1833330.html
There is a focus on maintaining ventilation, masking and social distancing in schools that opened only very recently when community transmission was very low. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-reopen-education-face-mask-b1833330.html
This is not the situation in the UK at all. 19% of our population is fully vaccinated and 50% partially. We're still seeing >2000 confirmed positive cases/day. Our schools don't have many of the strict mitigations in Israel.
The DfE is considering doing away with mask wearing.
The DfE is considering doing away with mask wearing.
It's very clear that we saw increases in infection in schools after they opened, with declines during Easter break. These were also reflected in other age groups, consistent with spill over of transmission from schools into the wider community. https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1383062499038265344?s=20
It's also worth looking at Chile, where 32% of the population has been *fully* vaccinated, and 42% have received one dose. Reassurance that vaccines would protect against rises in transmission led to early opening up - with devastating consequences.
It takes a large proportion of the population to be vaccinated to be able to prevent surges in infection. Vaccines + non-pharmaceutical interventions are needed to contain spread during roll-out. This also prevents virus adaptation, protecting our precious vaccine resources.
want to thank @chrischirp for discussions that helped me understand this and crystallise this into this thread.
Wanted to add a caveat here- thanks to @dolmenman1 for pointing this out - the scenario in Chile may not be completely applicable to the UK - given uncertainty regarding vaccine effectiveness with P.1, and potentially P.1. being more transmissible (B117 is our dominant variant).
Also, wanted to thank @fascinatorfun for pointing out that Israel also started vaccinating 16-21 yr olds much earlier on, targeting 'mixers' alongside 'vulnerable' groups, which would have a much greater impact on transmission compared with the UK vaccine strategy.
