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This is the age-wise Covid mortality data of Mumbai. It has been well known that Covid affects the older population more. But look at the scale of the difference.
CFR % of 70+ vs 0-29 yrs age group shows a 50x+ difference (8.2%/0.15%).
CFR % of 70+ vs 0-29 yrs age group shows a 50x+ difference (8.2%/0.15%).
But CFR % does not clearly represent the difference in mortality risk.
When adjusted for population sizes, 60-69 and 70+ age groups have a 573x and 1112x higher mortality risk compared to the 0-9 group. Risk is 300x+ for 60+ when compared with 10-19 group.
When adjusted for population sizes, 60-69 and 70+ age groups have a 573x and 1112x higher mortality risk compared to the 0-9 group. Risk is 300x+ for 60+ when compared with 10-19 group.
Even when closer age-groups are compared the risk differences are sizable.
The 50-59 age-group has 3x more risk than the 40-49 yr olds which has 3.4x more risk than 30-39 which has 3.5x more risk than 20-29.
These are big differences.
The 50-59 age-group has 3x more risk than the 40-49 yr olds which has 3.4x more risk than 30-39 which has 3.5x more risk than 20-29.
These are big differences.
Given the huge variance in mortality risk between age-groups, this should have been an important criteria in deciding who should be eligible for the vaccine.
It makes no sense to vaccinate a 20-yr old and 40-yr old at the same time when the risk one faces is 10x higher.
It makes no sense to vaccinate a 20-yr old and 40-yr old at the same time when the risk one faces is 10x higher.
A policy of vaccinating everyone above 18 makes sense only if vaccine supply is plenty and health infra isn't stretched. Neither of this is true right now.
All large countries have slowly expanded the eligibility by prioritizing the at-risk folks. India is the only exception.
All large countries have slowly expanded the eligibility by prioritizing the at-risk folks. India is the only exception.
The goal of vaccination policy when supplies are limited should not be to quickly vaccinate the most people. The goal should be to save the most lives. This can only happen by first vaccinating those who are most at risk.
GOI seemed to have initially followed this approach similar to other countries. But in the face of increasing and politically motivated demands from the opposition to expand eligibility, it chose the easy but unnecessary option of allowing vaccination for all above 18.
Now the onus is on the states to do the right thing.
I hope when the states announce their own eligibility criteria, they take the risk factor into account. Making everyone eligible irrespective of risk may be great for scoring political points but does not save the most lives.
I hope when the states announce their own eligibility criteria, they take the risk factor into account. Making everyone eligible irrespective of risk may be great for scoring political points but does not save the most lives.
